Predicting the Potential Suitable Distribution of Alsophila spinulosa
under Climate Change Scenario
Abstract
Alsophila spinulosa (Hook) Tryon, a relict plant of glaciers in the
early tertiary, is one of the world’s oldest living fossils and a
significant plant for studying ancient climates and species evolution in
geographical distribution. We utilized 476 geographical data points of
A. spinulosa and analyzed 15 climate, soil, and terrain factors using
Biomod2 software to construct an ensemble model. The model was employed
to simulate the potential distribution of A. spinulosa during the past
(Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene), current, and future periods
(2041–2060, 2061–2080), while identifying the primary environmental
variables influencing its distribution. The results demonstrated that
the ensemble model, derived from four optimal indi-vidual models,
yielded superior predictions of suitable habitats for A. spinulosa
compared to the single models. The combination model achieved impressive
true skill statistic (TSS) and receiver operating characteristic curve
(AUC) values of 0.979 and 0.999, respectively, confirming the high
accuracy of the simulated outcomes. Presently, the primary distribution
of A. spinulosa concen-trates within the region of 15° to 40° N in Asia,
with a prominent presence in East Asia, northern South Asia, and
Southeast Asia, covering a total area of approximately 1.7858 million
km2. The major environmental factors influencing its distribution
include isothermality, minimum temper-ature of the coldest month, and
precipitation during the warmest quarter. During the Last Glacial
Maximum, A. spinulosa was predominantly found in the eastern Himalayan
region, and its poten-tial geographical range during the mid-Holocene
resembled the current distribution. Under future climate conditions, the
suitable habitat of A. spinulosa is projected to expand northwestward,
and its centroid is expected to shift northward as temperatures rise.
This migration speed is positively correlated with the degree of
warming. The findings provide valuable insights for the conservation,
cultivation, and selection of protected areas for A. spinulosa in
response to climate change.