Interruption of influenza transmission under public health emergency
response based on real-world data, Beijing.
Abstract
Background. To estimate effect of COVID-19 control measures taken to
mitigate community transmission in many regions, we analyzed data based
on influenza surveillance system in Beijing from week 27th, 2014 to week
26th, 2020. Methods. We collected weekly number of influenza-like
illness (ILI), weekly positive proportion of ILI and weekly ILI
proportion in outpatients and the date of COVID-19 measures. We compared
influenza activity indicators of influenza season 2019/2020 with
preceding five seasons and built two ARIMAX models to estimate the
effective of COVID-19 measures. Results. Compared with preceding five
influenza seasons, ILIs, positive proportion of ILI, and duration of
influenza epidemic period decreased from 13% to 54%, especially, the
number of weeks from the peak to the end of influenza epidemic period,
decreased from 12 to one. After natural decline considered, weekly ILIs
decreased by 48.6% and weekly positive proportion dropped 15% in the
second week after emergency response declared, and finally COVID-19
measures reduced 83%. Conclusions. We conclude public health emergency
response can interrupt the transmission of influenza and other
respiratory infectious diseases markedly. Keyword. COVID-19 control
measures; influenza; ARIMAX