The developing flood rich period: science evidence and policy evolution
for England. Is it time for place-based socio-ecological solutions?
Abstract
Flood-related policies for England are reviewed, updating needs in the
light of recent flood-rich decades and in recognition of future climate
trends. This review updates one we published in 2021- a significant year
for extreme floods in Europe that were part of a continuing trend;
governments now require fast-track adaptation and resilience policies.
Currently, the event signals of increasing spatial and temporal
variability in impacts is insufficiently incorporated in hazard/risk
assessments. We advocate a transformative policy change towards
place-based strategies, based on the fast-emerging evidence from three
sciences: hydroclimatology, hydrology and hydromorphology. It is vital
that policy actions recognise factors such as atmospheric rivers,
surface water flooding, and the role of eroded and transported sediments
in localised hazards and risks. Located vulnerabilities require local
strategies. Attribution of extreme events to climate change, and the
recognition and specification of genuinely vulnerable sites, need
further refinement and extension into public decision making. Risk
assessment needs reform, both from science but also for institutions and
individuals, with accompanying reform of flood risk management
expenditure. Data analysis, e.g. of rainfall and river flow, needs more
disciplined clarity; standard sets are needed together with their
variable spatial/temporal application. We further recognise sediment
hazards (and other entrained debris spread in flood flows) as new and
important components for the located risk of present and emerging ‘hot
spots’.