Decades of butterfly monitoring reveal adaptation of multivoltine
species to climate warming
Abstract
Climate change is implicated as a leading cause of insect declines. One
way that insects respond to the warming climate is by advancing
phenology and increasing voltinism (adding generations). However, if
earlier phenology changes cue-response relationships, then late season
generations might lack time or resources to complete development before
winter and insects attempt doomed “lost generations”. Using 27 years
of monitoring of 30 butterfly species, we find the opposite, as added
generations increase population growth rates of multivoltine
butterflies. We find lost generations are rare and occur at cooler sites
in years with cold winters or early frosts. Overall, long-term
population trends are positively correlated with increasing voltinism
over time, suggesting additional generations as one mechanism by which
species adapt to the changing climate. Long-term monitoring programs can
test mechanistic hypotheses about biotic responses to warming while
simultaneously tracking if population consequences match the predicted
outcomes.