Probabilistic calibration of a binary classifier, applied to detecting
sleeping state in a car drive
Abstract
Predictions arising from deep neural networks may be very accurate but
not very robust, leading to uncertainty in their outcome. This critical
problem is receiving growing attention from the Machine Learning (ML)
community. A practical solution that is increasingly applied is
calculating confidence bounds for the ML predictions. Most confidence
bounds available in the literature are theoretically sound but
unfeasible from a practical viewpoint. In this paper, we contribute to
the literature with probabilistic confidence bounds based on conditional
probabilities, and we demonstrate their operational validity by means of
a real-world application that concerns the prediction of the sleeping
states of car drivers.