Assessment of Carbon Storage from Past and Future Perspectives on Hainan
Island, China
Abstract
Land use changes affect the carbon cycling process in terrestrial
ecosystems. As a key conservation area in China, the impact of land use
changes on carbon storage (CS) in Hainan Island is not yet known.
Revealing the spatiotemporal patterns of CS under land use changes
offers a reference for regional carbon management. This study couples
the InVEST and GeoSOS-FLUS models to map historical and future CS
spatial patterns, integrating optimal parameter geographic detectors and
multi-scale geographically weighted regression models to reveal the
driving forces of CS spatial pattern. Key findings include: (1) Hainan
Island’s land use is predominantly cropland and woodland. From 1990 to
2020, construction land increased by 668.25 km 2,
extensively encroaching on woodland and cropland, resulting in a
cumulative decrease in CS by approximately 229.54×10 4
t, with especially notable declines in rapidly developing coastal
regions. (2) Both natural and anthropogenic factors determine the
spatial pattern of CS, with natural factors playing a dominant role. The
interaction between natural and anthropogenic factors significantly
enhances their impact, resulting in both bivariate enhancement and
nonlinear enhancement. (3) The expansion of construction land will
continue in the future. By 2050, under natural development and rapid
development scenarios, CS is projected to decrease by 183.16×10
4 t and 283.09×10 4 t, respectively.
However, in the ecological protection scenario, restrictions on the
expansion of construction land and an increase in woodland areas will
result in a carbon storage increase of 87.66×10 4 t.
In the future land use planning for the Hainan free trade port, it is
crucial to enhance the protection of key ecological areas such as the
central mountainous regions and nature reserves, optimize the land-use
pattern, strictly control the conversion of woodland and cropland to
construction land, improve carbon sequestration capacity, and achieve
regional sustainable development.