Estimating the future with the Sustainability assessment methodology to
soil-associated agricultural experiments
Abstract
Agricultural sustainability assessments have gained high importance
during the last decades. Different tools have been developed for these
assessments such as the Sustainability assessment methodology oriented
to soil-associated agricultural experiments (SMAES). SMAES quantifies
the current sustainability of the different treatments evaluated in
experiments associated with the soil. However, efforts aimed to maintain
or increase the crop systems sustainability must be planned and measured
in the short, medium, and long-term. In this work, some parameters are
added to SMAES to estimate the future sustainability. The first
parameter is the construction of climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5,
model CCSM4, periods 2050-2100) to establish the conditions of change in
the future. Second, crop yield is modelled with DSSAT (Decision Support
System for Agrotechnology Transfer) using the aforementioned climate
scenarios. Third, yield modelling results and SMAES sustainability
indexes (IS) from climate scenarios are integrated. As a case of study,
the current sustainability (IS-A) of five potato fertilization split
treatments were initially estimated: Commercial control (Control),
Fertilization recommended by Agrosavia (As), Monthly split fertilization
recommended by Agrosavia (AsSplit), AsSplit decreasing the amount of
fertilizer by 25% (AsSp25), and AsSplit decreasing the amount of
fertilizer by 50% (AsSp50). AsSp50 generated the highest current and
future sustainability with IS-A = 0.90, IS-45, and IS-85 = 0.88. Results
suggest that integrated fertilization management practices generate a
higher potato crop sustainability in the Colombian high Andean, both
today and the future.