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Estimates of HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality in China 2018
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  • Fangfang Chen,
  • Dongmin Li,
  • Houlin Tang,
  • Zhongfu Liu,
  • Mengjie Han,
  • Fan Lv
Fangfang Chen
National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention
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Dongmin Li
National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention
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Houlin Tang
National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention
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Zhongfu Liu
National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention
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Mengjie Han
National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention
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Fan Lv
National Center for AIDS STD Control and Prevention

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Abstract

A thorough and precise comprehension understanding of the HIV epidemic is crucial for effective HIV prevention and control. We used Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)/Spectrum software to update the estimates of the overall HIV burden in China in 2018 from the obtained data from more than 1800 HIV sentinel surveillance sites, population-based seroprevalence surveys, and HIV screening of antenatal clinics and pre-marital medical check-ups across the country. In 2018, the total number of PLWH adults in China was estimated to be 1·23 million, corresponding to approximately 106.5/100,000. Over a half PLWH (58·6%) were infected through heterosexual contact, about one-third (30·2%) through male-to-male transmission, 9·0% through IDU, and 2·3% due to former plasma donation. In recent years, the number of new infections through blood donation has been eliminated, and the number of infections through injecting drug use has been kept low. Sexual contact became the predominant transmission route, while casual sexual contact became increasingly common. Overall, HIV mortality has been steadily increasing and has recently begun to decline during 2012-2018. The number of deaths from HIV/AIDS in 2018 was approximately 35 000 (95% UI: 30 000-41 000). The number of estimated PLWH in China has exceeded one million, due to the ongoing occurrence of new infections and longer survival rates. HIV transmission through blood products has been eradicated. Casual sex has become a significant mode of transmission. It is recommended to enhance the implementation of strategies and measures for sexual communication in the general population and to bolster multidisciplinary research.
Submitted to Journal of Medical Virology
08 Apr 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
30 Apr 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
13 Sep 20241st Revision Received
16 Sep 2024Submission Checks Completed
16 Sep 2024Assigned to Editor
16 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
24 Sep 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
24 Oct 2024Editorial Decision: Accept