Development and validation of a new model including inflammation indexes
for the long-term prognosis of hepatitis B-related acute-on-chronic
liver failure
Abstract
Background: Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a disease
characterized by systemic inflammatory response with high mortality.
Nowadays, there is no prediction model for its long-term prognosis. We
aimed to establish and validate a prognostic prediction model
incorporating inflammation indexes to forecast the long-term prognosis
of patients with hepatitis B-related ACLF (HBV-ACLF). Methods:
Retrospective analysis of 986 patients’ clinical data with HBV-ACLF from
Third Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University between January 2014
and December 2018 were conducted. The patients were randomly divided
into the training cohort (690 cases) and the validation cohort (296
cases) according to the ratio of 7:3. LASSO and Cox regression analysis
were used to determine the independent risk factors for long-term
mortality. Results: The following variables were identified:
age, cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy, total bilirubin (TBIL),
international normalized ratio (INR), Monocyte to lymphocyte ratio
(MLR), and Neutrophil to platelet ratio (NPR), and a new nomogram was
constructed to predict the survival rate of 1 -month, 3-month, and
12-month by weighting the scores of each variable. The C-index was 0.777
(95%CI 0.752-0.802), and the AUC was 0.829 (95%CI 0.798-0.859) in the
training cohort. The predictive value of the nomogram demonstrated a
superior ability to predict long-term survival rate compared to MELD
score (0.767, 95% CI: 0.730-0.804, P<0.001), and COSSH-ACLF II
score (0.807, 95%CI: 0.774-0.840, P=0.028). Evaluation using
calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested its
practical utility. Conclusions: The novel inflammation scoring
system, including MLR and NPR, can well predict long-term mortality in
HBV- ACLF patients.