Multi-Variate Forecasting, Scenario Generation, and Optimal Reduction
for NYISO and ERCOT Regions
Abstract
In this paper, we address input load/generation uncertainty in the
stochastic economic dispatch and unit commitment for forecasting and
then scenario generation purposes. We propose a constrained
multi-variate linear regression formulation to model the joint
spatial-temporal distribution of forecasts of loads, and renewable
energy productions such as solar cells and wind turbines at various
locations. In this model, l 0 and l 1 constraints are added to simulate
LASSO and Ridge regression models. In order to generate robust solutions
for stochastic economic dispatch and unit commitment, we eliminate
heavy-tails from forecasted errors using extreme value theory. We then
employ a Monte-Carlo sampling technique to generate scenarios. Finally,
we propose a new exact model for scenario reduction. For this paper, we
used data published at NYISO and ERCOT websites. Our numerical results
show how energy loads and renewable energies can be forecasted using our
methodologies.