Multi-Variate Forecasting, Scenario Generation, and Optimal Reduction
for NYISO and ERCOT Regions
Abstract
In this paper, we address input load/generation uncertainty in the
stochastic economic dispatch and unit commitment for forecasting and
then scenario generation purposes. We propose a constrained
multi-variate linear regression formulation to model the joint
spatial-temporal distribution of load forecasts and renewable energy
productions such as solar cells and wind turbines at various locations.
This model adds l 0 and l 1 constraints to simulate exact counterparts
for LASSO and Ridge regression models. We eliminate heavy tails from
forecasted errors using extreme value theory to generate robust
solutions for stochastic economic dispatch and unit commitment. We then
employ a Monte Carlo sampling technique to generate scenarios. Finally,
we propose a new exact model for scenario reduction. For this paper, we
used data published at NYISO a and ERCOT
b websites. Our numerical results show how
energy loads and renewable energies can be forecasted using our
methodology and forecasted values predict actual values.