Developing Effective Flow Enhancement Strategies for Salmonid Recovery
and Climate Change Adaptation in Central California's Coastal Watersheds
Abstract
An integrated hydrologic model of a rainfall-dominated catchment was
used to quantify existing and predict future streamflows relative to
salmonid needs and evaluate the efficacy of flow enhancement strategies.
Future climate scenarios indicate declines in summer rearing habitat of
up to 22% and a shift towards earlier flow recession with some
scenarios forecasting a complete loss of passable flow conditions for
outmigrating smolts during drought. Significant mitigation of these
adverse changes appears possible; simulating reservoir releases and
reduced evapotranspiration (ET) through forest management produces
increases in summer flows large enough to fully offset the predicted
declines associated with even the direst climate projections. Adapting
to reductions in flow during the salmonid outmigration season is more
challenging, although reservoir releases or forest management could
provide passable flow conditions that extend 9-35 days further into the
outmigration season. In contrast, cessation of all surface water
diversion did not meaningfully offset the predicted future reductions in
streamflow. Streamflow enhancement effects were much greater in the
portions of the watershed underlain by Coastal Belt units of the
Franciscan Complex compared to areas underlain by Central Belt units,
suggesting that flow enhancement work may be less impactful in basins
with storage-limited hydrogeologic conditions. Successful adaptation to
climate change in terms of streamflow may require increased emphasis on
strategies such as reservoir releases and/or vegetation management that
would reduce forest ET. Significant additional research linking specific
forest treatments to long-term ET reductions and streamflow consequences
is needed to optimize streamflow benefits of forest treatments.