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Can macroevolution inform contemporary extinction risk?
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  • Sarah-Sophie Weil,
  • Sébastien Lavergne,
  • Florian C. Boucher,
  • William L. Allen,
  • Laure Gallien
Sarah-Sophie Weil
Georg-August-Universität Göttingen

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Sébastien Lavergne
Universite Grenoble Alpes
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Florian C. Boucher
Universite Grenoble Alpes
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William L. Allen
Swansea University
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Laure Gallien
Universite Grenoble Alpes
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Abstract

Current global changes are driving many species towards extinction, making the early detection of threatened species a priority for efficient conservation actions. However, the threat status of many species remains unknown because we lack primary data (e.g., population trends), and using ecological indicator traits such as range size is not always straightforward. Recently, the idea has emerged to link species’ current threat status to macroevolutionary indicators, e.g., rates of extinction, diversification or niche evolution. However, to fully utilise this approach, we need to understand the underlying assumptions and when they are valid; namely, in which cases macroevolutionary indicators can be used as proxies for extinction-promoting characteristics, such as small range size, narrow niche breadth or low evolutionary potential. Here, we assess current understanding of the assumptions underlying the relationship between macroevolutionary indices and contemporary extinction risk. We find that only past extinction rates can be reliable predictors of current extinction risk. Assumptions underlying relationships between current extinction risk and diversification and niche evolution rates were only supported in specific circumstances and should be tested on a case-by-case basis. When intermediate assumptions are validated, macroevolutionary indicators could be promising tools complementing trait-based approaches in identifying vulnerable species.
25 Nov 2024Submitted to Ecology Letters
25 Nov 2024Submission Checks Completed
25 Nov 2024Assigned to Editor
25 Nov 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
02 Dec 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned