System Dynamics Simulation and Scenario Optimization of China's Water
Footprint under Different SSP-RCP Scenarios
Abstract
Under the dual influence of socioeconomic development and climate
change, water resources in China are under increasing stress. It is of
great significance to comprehensively explore the changing trend of
China’s water footprint (WF) in the future, clarify the water resource
challenges that China will face, and alleviate water shortage and water
pollution problems. This paper uses System Dynamics (SD) to build a
simulation model of China’s WF, calculate China’s WF from 2000 to 2019,
and for the first time, simulate and optimize China’s WF from 2020 to
2050 under the SSP-RCP scenario matrix composed of Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The
results are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2019, China’s WF increased to
2009 and began to decline. The main contributors are gray WF and
agricultural WF. (2) From 2020–2050, different socioeconomic
development and climate change conditions under the five SSP-RCP
scenarios will lead to different trends in China’s WF and its
composition. (3) Based on the changes in WF and water resources
supply/demand ratio under different scenarios, the SSP1-2.6 scenario is
the best scenario to mitigate a future water shortage and water
pollution in China. The research results can help decision-makers
formulate relevant management policies and socioeconomic development
models for water resource utilization and provide decision support for
alleviating water shortages and water pollution in China.