Coupled Water-Rice Systems under Multiple Driving Forces: Soft Limits of
Adaptations to Climate Change in Japan
Abstract
The impacts of climate change and increased water use for irrigation
make it difficult to manage sustainable water use and food production.
Sufficient research has not been conducted on how humans adapt to water
risks due to climate change. One of the difficulties in considering
adaptation measures is that adaptation actions in one sector conflict
with the interests of other stakeholders in the basin and trade-off
relationships emerge among various sectors. Here, we examined how an
effective adaptation in one sector (agriculture) influences the other
(water resources) by calculating the “benefits of agricultural
production” and “drought risk” under current and future climate
scenarios. We built a framework consisting of two process-based models
of hydrology and crop science and evaluated shifting of the
transplantation date as a promising measure to avoid the degradation of
rice quality in Japan. Shifting the transplantation date had opposing
effects on the total yield and quality of rice, with an earlier date
increasing the total yield and a later date increasing the quality.
Furthermore, an earlier transplantation date reduced the drought risk.
Thus, in terms of the preferred adaptation options, total yield and
drought were synergistic, whereas rice quality and drought were
trade-offs. Our results imply that the current transplantation date has
resulted from the farmers’ motivation to maximize total yield, but this
motivation may change to other factors, possibly rice quality, due to
climate change. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of
how interconnected systems evolve when climate or socio-economic
conditions change.