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Global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections reveal key uncertainties
  • +34
  • Tyler Eddy,
  • Ryan Heneghan,
  • Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz,
  • Beth Fulton,
  • Cheryl Shannon Harrison,
  • Derek Tittensor,
  • Heike K Lotze,
  • Kelly Ortega-Cisneros,
  • Camilla Novaglio,
  • Daniele Bianchi,
  • Matthias Büchner,
  • Catherine M Bulman,
  • William Cheung,
  • Villy Christensen,
  • Marta Coll,
  • Jason D Everett,
  • L. Denisse Fierro Arcos,
  • Eric D. Galbraith,
  • Didier Gascuel,
  • Jerome Guiet,
  • Steve Mackinson,
  • Olivier Maury,
  • Susa Niiranen,
  • Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos,
  • Juliano Palacios-Abrantes,
  • Chiara Piroddi,
  • Hubert du Pontavice,
  • Jonathan Charles Reum,
  • Anthony Richardson,
  • Jacob Schewe,
  • Lynne Shannon,
  • Yunne-Jai Shin,
  • Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek,
  • Jan Volkholz,
  • Nicola Walker,
  • Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats,
  • Julia L. Blanchard
Tyler Eddy
Memorial University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Ryan Heneghan
School of Science and Environment
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Andrea Bryndum-Buchholz
Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute, Memorial University of Newfoundland
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Beth Fulton
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
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Cheryl Shannon Harrison
Louisiana State University
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Derek Tittensor
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Heike K Lotze
Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, 1355 Oxford Street, Halifax, NS B3H 4R2, Canada
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Kelly Ortega-Cisneros
Department of Biological Sciences, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
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Camilla Novaglio
University of Tasmania
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Daniele Bianchi
University of California Los Angeles
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Matthias Büchner
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Catherine M Bulman
CSIRO
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William Cheung
University of British Columbia
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Villy Christensen
UBC Insitute of the Oceans and Fisheries
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Marta Coll
Institute of Marine Science (ICM-CSIC), Barcelona, Spain
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Jason D Everett
University of New South Wales
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L. Denisse Fierro Arcos
The University of Tasmania
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Eric D. Galbraith
McGill University
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Didier Gascuel
Institut Argo
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Jerome Guiet
University of California, Los Angeles
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Steve Mackinson
Scottish Pelagic Fishermen's Association
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Olivier Maury
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Susa Niiranen
Stockholm University
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Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos
Institut de Recherche pour le Développement
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Juliano Palacios-Abrantes
Institute for the Oceans and Fisheries, The University of British Columbia
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Chiara Piroddi
European Commission, Joint Research Centre
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Hubert du Pontavice
Princeton University
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Jonathan Charles Reum
NOAA Fisheries
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Anthony Richardson
University of Queensland, Australia
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Jacob Schewe
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
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Lynne Shannon
University of Cape Town
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Yunne-Jai Shin
IRD/IFREMER
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Jeroen Gerhard Steenbeek
Ecopath International Initiative (EII)
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Jan Volkholz
PIK Potsdam
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Nicola Walker
CEFAS
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Phoebe Woodworth-Jefcoats
NOAA
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Julia L. Blanchard
University of Tasmania
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Abstract

Climate change is affecting ocean temperature, acidity, currents, and primary production, causing shifts in species distributions, marine ecosystems, and ultimately fisheries. Earth system models simulate climate change impacts on physical and biogeochemical properties of future oceans under varying emissions scenarios. Coupling these simulations with an ensemble of global marine ecosystem models indicates decreasing global fish biomass with warming. However, regional projections of these impacts remain much more uncertain. Here, we employ CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate change impact projections using two Earth system models coupled with four regional and nine global marine ecosystem models in ten ocean regions to evaluate model agreement at regional scales. We find that models developed at different scales can lead to stark differences in biomass projections. On average, global models projected greater biomass declines by the end of the 21st century than regional models. For both global and regional models, greater biomass declines were projected using CMIP6 than CMIP5 simulations. Global models projected biomass declines in 86% of CMIP5 simulations for ocean regions compared to 50% for regional models in the same ocean regions. In CMIP6 simulations, all global model simulations projected biomass declines in ocean regions by 2100, while regional models projected biomass declines in 67% of the ocean region simulations. Our analysis suggests that improved understanding of the causes of differences between global and regional marine ecosystem model climate change projections is needed, alongside observational evaluation of modelled responses.
09 May 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
10 May 2024Published in ESS Open Archive