The current COVID-19 pandemic offers a unique opportunity to examine the utility of Internet search data in disease modelling across multiple countries. Google Trends data (GTD) indicating the volume of Internet searching on ‘Coronavirus’ were obtained for a range of European countries along with corresponding incident case numbers. Significant positive correlations between GTD with incident case numbers occurred across European countries, with the strongest correlations being obtained using contemporaneous data for most countries. GTD was then integrated into a lag distributed model; this improved model quality for both the increasing and decreasing epidemic phases.

The objective of the study was to define and then evaluate an early decision indicator (EDI) trigger that operated within the first 5 weeks of a response that would indicate a large outbreak of FMD was developing, in order to be able to inform control options within an adaptive management framework. To define the trigger, a previous dataset of 10,000 simulated FMD outbreaks in New Zealand, controlled by the standard stamping-out approach, was re-analysed at various time points between days 11–35 of each response. The two predictive metrics adopted comprised the mean third quartiles of cumulative numbers of infected premises (IPs) at weekly time points, and estimated dissemination rate (EDR) values indicating sustained spread, specifically > 2.0 between days 11-14 or > 1.5 at any time point between days 15–35 of the response. To evaluate the trigger, the trigger was parameterized within the InterSpread Plus modelling framework, and a new series of simulation generated. The trigger was treated like a series of diagnostic tests that were applied during days 11–35 of each simulated outbreak, and its results recorded and then compared to the final size of each outbreak. The performance of the test was then evaluated across the population of outbreaks, and the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) calculated. The Se, Sp, PPV and NPV for predicting large outbreaks were 0.997, 0.513, 0.404 and 0.998 respectively. The study showed that the complex EDI incorporating both the cumulative number of IPs and EDR was very sensitive to detecting large outbreaks, although not all outbreaks predicted to be large were so, whereas outbreaks predicted to be small invariably were small. Therefore, it shows promise as a tool that could support an adaptive management approach to FMD control.

Worldwide, Mycoplasma gallisepticum (MG) and M. synoviae (MS) are the main agents responsible for chronic respiratory disease in poultry. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate their occurrence. We searched electronic databases to find peer-reviewed publications reporting the molecular detection of MG and MS in poultry and used meta-analysis to estimate their pooled occurrence (combined flock and individual), aggregating results at the regional and national levels. We performed a subgroup meta-analysis for subpopulations (broilers, layers, breeders, and diverse poultry including turkeys, ducks, and ostriches) and used meta-regression with categorical modifiers. We retrieved 2,294 publications from six electronic databases and included 85 publications from 33 countries that reported 62 studies with 22,162 samples for MG and 48 studies with 26,413 samples for MS. The pooled occurrence was 38.4% (95% CI: 23.5-54.5) for MS and 27.0% (20.4-34.2) for MG. Among regions, Europe and Central Asia had the lowest occurrence for both pathogens, while MG and MS were highly prevalent in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, respectively. MG occurrence was higher in Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Sudan, whereas China, Egypt, and Ethiopia reported a higher occurrence of MS. MS and MG were more prevalent in the breeders and layers (62.6% and 31.2%, respectively) than in diverse poultry. The year of publication, the sample size, and the level of ambient air pollution (measured indirectly by PM2.5) were associated with the occurrence of both mycoplasmas. Our study revealed a high and heterogeneous occurrence of MG and MS and justifies the need for an early detection and improved control measures to reduce the spread of these pathogens.

The Chinese pangolin ( Manis pentadactyla) is a critically endangered scale-covered mammal belonging to the order Pholidota. Wild pangolins are notably susceptible to pathogen infection and are typically characterized by impoverished health. However, little is currently known regarding the viruses prevalent among pangolins. In this study, we report the detection of two subtypes of canine parvovirus type 2 (CPV-2), namely, CPV-2a and CPV-2c, both of which caused severe diarrheal disease in two post-rescue pangolins with fatal consequences. As in CPV-2-infected dogs, intensive lesion of the mucosal layer of the small intestines is a prominent feature in infected pangolins. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the VP2 viral protein sequences isolated from one pangolin were classified into the CPV-2c subclade, with 99.8% identities to a CPV-2c strain (MN832850) isolated from a Taiwanese pangolin found in Taiwan Province. In contrast, VP2 sequences obtained from the second pangolin were classified into the CPV-2a subclade, with 99.8% identities to a CPV-2a strain (KY386858) isolated from southern China. In this study, we thus confirmed the infection of pangolins with CPV-2c in mainland China and demonstrate that CPV-2a can also infect pangolins. Based on these findings, we recommend that further investigations should be conducted to establish the interspecies transmission of these viruses among wild pangolins, wild carnivores, and stray dogs.

In the present study one hundred and sixteen partial G gene sequences of Avian metapneumovirus (aMPV) subtype B, obtained during routine diagnostics in different European Countries in the last few years (2014-2019), were analysed by sequence and phylogenetic analyses in order to draw an updated picture of the molecular characteristics of circulating strains. Nucleotide sequences were compared with other sequences of European and extra-European aMPV-Bs collected prior to that period or retrieved from GenBank. Phylogenetic relationships among the aMPV-B strains, reconstructed using the Maximum Likelihood method implemented in MEGA X, demonstrated that aMPV-B has evolved in Europe from its first appearance, frequently displaying a clear relation with the geographic area of detection. The 40% of aMPV-B viruses analysed were classified as vaccine-derived strains, being phylogenetically related, and showing high nucleotide identity with live commercial vaccine strains licensed in Europe. The remaining 60% were classified as field strains since they clustered separately and showed a low nucleotide identity with vaccines and vaccine-derived strains. The phylogenetic tree showed that the virus has continued to evolve from its first appearance in the ’80s since more recently detected strains belonged to clades phylogenetically distant from the older strains. Unlike vaccine-derived strains, field strains tended to cluster according to their geographic origin and irrespective of the host species where the viruses had been detected. In conclusion, the molecular characterization of aMPV-B and the differentiation between vaccines and field strains through G gene sequence analysis can be a useful tool towards correct diagnosis and should be routinely applied in order to better address the control strategies.

Sarcoptic mange, a disease caused by the burrowing mite Sarcoptes scabiei, is globally endemic and an emerging threat to wildlife. Although many studies have shown that wildlife diseases play key roles in biodiversity conservation, knowledge about sarcoptic mange is still insufficient. In this study, we aim to improve the understanding of the impacts of sarcoptic mange on wildlife populations, the mechanisms involved in its ecoepidemiology, and the associated risks to public and ecosystem health by investigating mass death events in gorals and serows in the Qinling Mountains. We conducted interviews with practitioners and local people in the central Qinling Mountains. From the same locations, we collected 24 cutaneous samples from various animals and surveillance data from infrared cameras. Pathological, parasitological and microbiological examinations of the samples were performed. Mite-induced cutaneous lesions, mites and eggs were observed in samples from dead gorals and one dead serow, but not in other species. Molecular analysis confirmed the mites to be S. scabiei that originated from rabbits. The data obtained from the interviews and infrared cameras indicated that the death of wildlife was related to sarcoptic mange infection and that there had been a decrease in the goral population since the outbreak of the disease. We confirmed that sarcoptic mange was the major cause of the mass death events and may have spread from the western to eastern Qinling Mountains. Based on our findings, we propose several protection strategies to help preserve biodiversity in the Qinling Mountains.

African swine fever virus variants with different numbers of a 10-bp tandem repeat were isolated in South Korea soon after being identified in wild boar. The short emergence periods and sympatric distributions within a narrow geographical region suggest that the variants were sporadically generated in the pre-existing viral population.

Hyalomma ticks are important vectors of Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever Virus (CCHFV) and other pathogens. They are frequently carried as immatures from Africa, the Middle East and Mediterranean areas to temperate Europe via migratory birds and emergence of its adults has been reported in many countries where it has so far been non-endemic. Our aim was to implement the first steps of the DAMA (Document, Assess, Monitor, Act) protocol by monitoring the potential arrival of adult Hyalomma ticks in Hungary applying citizen-science methods. Ticks were collected from April-December 2021 by asking volunteer participants through a self-made website to look for unusual hard ticks on themselves, their pets and livestock. Owing to the intensive media campaign, the project website had over 31 thousand visitors within seven months and 137 specimens and several hundreds of photos of hard ticks were submitted by citizen scientists from all over the country. Beside Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Dermacentor marginatus and Haemaphysalis inermis, a specimen from a dog was morphologically identified as a male Hyalomma marginatum and another removed from a cattle as a male Hyalomma rufipes. The dog and the cattle had never been abroad, they were approximately 280 km apart, thus the two Hyalomma observations can be considered as separate introductions. Amplification of the partial mitochondrial cytochrome C oxidase subunit I gene was successful for both specimens. Sequencing verified the previous morphological identification for both ticks. Based on the phylogenetic analyses the Hy. marginatum individual most likely belongs to the Eurasian population and the Hy. rufipes to a clade of mixed sequences from Europe and Africa. We summarize the scattered historical reports about the occurrence of Hyalomma ticks and CCHFV in Hungary. Our data highlight the effectiveness of citizens science programmes in the monitoring and risk assessment of CCHFV emergence and preparedness in our region.

In Southern Africa, the African Swine Fever (ASF) sylvatic cycle presents a permanent threat for the development of the pig farming industry. Warthogs (Phacochoerus africanus) and bushpigs (Potamochoerus larvatus), wild reservoirs of ASF are present in Ndumo Game Reserve (NGR), located in Northern KwaZulu Natal Province in South Africa and within 30 km of the locations of endemic ASF outbreaks in Mozambique where sylvatic disease transmission has been implicated. To assess if wild suids represent a risk of ASF virus spillover to domestic pigs in the neighbouring community, transect counts and fence patrols were conducted and camera traps were deployed in NGR to estimate wild suid abundance and incursions outside NGR boundaries. We searched for Ornithodoros ticks in 35 warthog burrows distributed across different NGR areas. Pig farmers (n=254) surrounding Mathenjwa Community were interviewed to gather information on interactions between domestic and wild suids and the occurrence of ASF. We conclude that NGR has established populations of bushpigs and warthogs, estimated at 5 and 3-5 individuals/km2 respectively. Both species move out of the reserve regularly (15.4 warthogs/day and 6.35 bushpigs/day), with a significant increase of movements during the dry season. Some farmers observed warthogs and bushpigs as far as 8 and 19 km from the reserve respectively, but no direct wild-domestic suids interactions nor any ASF outbreaks were reported. In addition, no soft ticks were found among the 35 warthog burrows. The absence of ticks in warthog burrows from NGR and the absence of reported outbreaks and familiarity with ASF in the surrounding farming area, suggest that a sylvatic cycle of ASF is at present unlikely in NGR. However, further research should be undertaken to confirm this by surveying a larger number of warthog burrows and monitoring potential antibodies in warthogs from NGR and domestic pigs in the neighbouring community.

A novel neurological disorder disease, shaking mink syndrome (SMS), emerged in Denmark and Sweden since 2000. The SMS has seldom been reported in China, and the causative agent is uncertain. SMS outbreaks occurred in multiple provinces in 2020, A total of 44 brain samples from minks associated with SMS were collected from Heilongjiang, Liaoning, and Shandong provinces, of which 28 samples (63.3%) were SMS-Astrovirus (SMS-AstV) positive by reverse transcription PCR. Moreover, the complete coding region sequences (CDS) of a sample collected from a two-month-old mink (termed SMS-Astv-H1) were amplified by PCR. The complete CDS and ORF2 sequences of SMS-AstV-H1 were 94.3% and 96.4% identical to an SMS-AstV strain (GenBank accession number: GU985458). Phylogenetically, SMS-Astv-H1 was closely related to an SMS-AstV strain (GU985458). Based on the above results, we describe the SMS-AstV infections related to SMS among farmed minks in China. Future studies need to focus on epidemiology, virus isolation, and potential interspecies transmission of SMS-AstV.

Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease (RHD) is a significant viral disease affecting lagomorphs. The first documented cases of RHD in Singapore occurred in adult pet European rabbits in September 2020. Singapore subsequently declared the outbreak resolved in December 2020. Epidemiological investigations ruled out introductions via importation of infected rabbits and contaminated feed. The source could not be definitively determined. However, the findings suggest that the incident involved both inter- and intra-household transmission and veterinary clinic-household transmission. This incident demonstrated the importance of sustained application of biosecurity measures, epidemiological investigations, and control, including active case finding, expedient vaccine dissemination, and risk communications. It shows that Singapore, an urbanised city-state, without a significant lagomorph population, could still encounter emerging diseases such as rabbit haemorrhagic disease. Given its social impact on rabbit owners, the National Parks Board Singapore and the private veterinarians worked together to communicate and urge the adoption of biosecurity measures and assuage the concerns of rabbit owners.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB), caused by Mycobacterium bovis (M. bovis) infection, is a multi-host disease which negatively affects the wildlife industry, with adverse consequences for conservation, ecotourism, and game/wildlife sales. Although interspecies transmission has been reported between some wildlife hosts, the risk of spread in complex ecosystems is largely unknown. As a controlled disease, tools for accurate detection of M. bovis infection is crucial for effective surveillance and management, especially in wildlife populations. There are however, limited species-specific diagnostic tests available for wildlife. Hippopotamuses are rarely tested for M. bovis infection and infection has not previously been confirmed in these species. In this study, blood and tissue samples collected from common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) residing in a bTB endemic area, the Greater Kruger Protected area (GKPA), were retrospectively screened to determine whether there was evidence for interspecies transmission of M. bovis, and to identify tools for M. bovis detection in this species. Using the multi-species DPP® VetTB serological assay, a bTB seroprevelance of 8% was found in hippopotamus from GKPA. In addition, the first confirmed case of M. bovis infection in a free-ranging common hippopotamus is reported, based on the isolation in mycobacterial culture, genetic speciation, and detection of DNA in tissue samples. Importantly, the M. bovis spoligotype (SB0121) isolated from this common hippopotamus is shared with other M. bovis-infected hosts in GKPA, suggesting interspecies transmission. These results support the hypothesis that M. bovis infection may be under recognized in hippopotamus. Further investigation is needed to determine the risk of interspecies transmission of M. bovis to common hippopotamus in bTB endemic ecosystems and evaluate serological and other diagnostic tools in this species.

We report on a 15-year-long outbreak of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in wildlife from a Brazilian safari park. A timeline of diagnostic events and whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of 21 Mycobacterium bovis isolates from deer and llamas were analyzed. Accordingly, from 2003 to 2018, at least 16 animals, from 8 species, died due to TB, which is likely an underestimated number. In three occasions since 2013, the deer presented positive tuberculin tests, leading to the park closure and culling of all deer. WGS indicated that multiple M. bovis strains were circulating, with at least three founding introductions since the park inauguration in 1977. Recent transmission events between nearby farms and the park were not found based on WGS. Lastly, by discussing socio-economic and environmental factors escaping current regulatory gaps that were determinant of this outbreak, we pledge for the development of a plan to report and control bTB in wildlife in Brazil.

There are several routes of African swine fever (ASF) introduction into a country. Among the possible routes of entry, quarantine policies determine the possibility of introduction by legal import of live pigs and pig products. This study aimed at assessing the probability of ASF introduction through legal import of live pigs and pig products during the high risk period (HRP) using a quantitative stochastic approach during 2009-2018. The result indicates that the mean annual probability of ASF introduction by legal import of live pig was 1.58×10-7 (1.52~1.67×10-7 95% CI). The mean annual probability by legal import of pig products was 1.59×10-10 (1.55~1.64×10-10 95% CI), of which Poland assumed 87.9% of the mean annual risk. The current import quarantine policy of Korean government may be enough to block the release of the virus via legal import of live pigs and pig products, and it should be continually enforced. This result can help to elucidate source of infection and minimize the catastrophic consequences of the potential ASF reintroduction into South Korea by designing risk mitigation strategies such as risk-based selection of routes to be assessed and prevented and decreased exposure possibility by increased control of food waste and swill feeding practices.

Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N6 viruses have been responsible for outbreaks in poultry. In this study, four H5N6 virus strains were isolated from fecal samples of sick white ducks and dead chickens in Shandong in 2019. These H5N6 viruses were triple-reassortant viruses that have not been previously characterized. Their HA genes were derived from the H5 viruses and were closely related to the vaccine strain Re-11. Their NA genes all fell into the N6-like lineage and the internal gene were derived from H5N1 and H9N2 viruses. They all showed high pathogenicity in mice and caused lethal infection with high rates of transmission in chickens. Moreover, the SPF chickens inoculated with the current used vaccine in China were completely protected from these four H5N6 viruses. Our study indicated the necessity of continued surveillance for H5 IAV and the importance of timely update of vaccine strains in poultry industry.

African swine fever (ASF) is emerging in Vietnam and poses a continuing severe threat to the swine industry. A histopathological study of clinical samples collected during the August to September 2019 outbreak of ASF was performed to determine the characteristic lesions. We analyzed samples from eight ASFV-infected farms. Histopathological results revealed the characteristic lesions of the acute to the subacute clinical form of ASF. Immunohistochemical results showed ASFV viral antigen distribution in mononuclear cells/macrophage in various organs, hepatocytes, and renal tubular epithelium. Molecular analysis of partial capsid protein 72 gene revealed that ASFV strain from the eight separate outbreaks belonged to genotype II.

Indirect costs of animal disease outbreaks often significantly exceed the direct costs. Despite their importance, indirect costs remain poorly characterised due to their complexity. In this study, we developed a framework to assess the indirect costs of a hypothetical African Swine Fever outbreak in Switzerland. We collected data through international and national stakeholder interviews, analysis of national disease control regulations and industry data. We developed a framework to capture the resulting qualitative and quantitative data, categorise the impacts of these regulations, and rank the impacts in order of importance. We then developed a spreadsheet model to calculate the indirect costs of one category of control measure for an individual group of stakeholders. We developed a decision tree model to guide the most economically favourable implementation plan for a given control measure category, under different outbreak scenarios. Our results suggest that the most important measure/impact categories were ‘Transport logistics’, ‘Consumer demand’, ‘Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact’ and ‘Slaughter logistics’. In our hypothetical scenario, the greatest costs associated with ‘Prevention of wild boar and domestic pig contact’ were due to assumed partial or total depopulation of pig farms in order to reduce herd size to comply with the simulated control regulations. The model also provides suggestions on the most economically favourable strategy to reduce contact between wild boar and domestic pigs in control areas depending on the duration of the outbreak. Our approach provides a new framework to integrate qualitative and quantitative data to guide disease control strategy. This method could be useful in other countries and for other diseases, including in data- and resource-poor settings, or areas with limited experience of animal disease outbreaks.

Toxoplasmosis is a zoonotic disease caused by the ubiquitous coccidia Toxoplasma gondii. Rodents play an important role in maintaining its life cycle, as they are one of the main diet sources for felids (wild and domestic), the unique definitive hosts. However, reports of toxoplasmosis in porcupines (Rodentia Order) are uncommon, with gaps concerning its pathophysiology. South America is the continent with the greatest genetic diversity of rodents and T. gondii. A free-ranging hairy dwarf porcupine was admitted to a wildlife rescue center with a history of trauma. During rehabilitation, the animal presented neurological symptoms (sporadic episodes of hind limbs paresis) and died five months later. The main findings during necropsy were brain congestion and severe incisor overgrowth associated with maxillary perforation. The histopathological exam showed moderate encephalitis, with variable-sized round cysts, positive for PAS stain and immunohistochemistry for T. gondii. Additionally, two cysts were observed in the medulla of the adrenal gland. Molecular techniques were performed to characterize the parasite load by qPCR (Cq=30) and the genotype by PCR-RFLP with 11 markers, which revealed a new genotype. This case adds to the body of knowledge in comparative pathology of Neotropical Rodentia and reports a new genotype circulating in South America.