ENSO events are the most significant interannual perturbation of the climate system. Previous attempts to link ENSO with volcanic eruptions failed because only large eruptions across the globe, which typically eject tephra into the stratosphere, were considered. I have analysed all volcanic eruptions in South Eastern (SE) Asia, about 10ºS to 10ºN and 90ºE to 160ºE (4d), the most volcanically active area in the world with over 23% of all eruptions in the Global Volcanism Program database since 1500 occurring here and with 5 volcanoes stated in the literature to have erupted nearly continuously for 30 years. SE Asia is also the region where the convective arm of the thermally direct Walker Circulation occurs driven by the intense equatorial solar radiation which creates the high surface temperature. The volcanic tephra plume intercepts some of the solar radiation by absorption/reflection which cools the surface and heats the atmosphere creating a temperature inversion compared to periods without the plume. This reduces convection and causes the Walker Circulation and Trade Winds to weaken. This reduced wind speed causes the central Pacific Ocean to warm creating convection there and further weakening the Walker Circulation. With the reduced wind stress the western Pacific warm pool migrates east. This creates an ENSO event which continues until the tephra plume reduces, typically when the SE Asian monsoon commences, and convection is re-established over SE Asia and the Pacific warm pool migrates back to the west. Correlations of SE Asian tephra and the ENSO indices are typically over 0.80 at ρ < 0.02 at 5c below. In recent decades the anthropogenic SE Asian aerosol Plume (SEAP) has intensified the volcanic plume in some years from September to November (SON). Using NASA satellite data and the NASA MERRA-2 reanalysis dataset I show correlation coefficients typically over 0.70 and up to 0.99 at ρ < 0.01 between the aerosol optical depth (AOD) or aerosol index (AI) and the ENSO indices on a detrended basis in SON at 5a. If two events A and B correlate 5 options are possible: (1) A causes B; (2) B causes A; (3) C, another event, causes A & B simultaneously; (4) It’s a coincidence; and (5) The relationship is complex with feedback. The volcanic results: only allow options 1 or 4 as ENSO cannot cause volcanic eruptions; and are backed up by 4 independent satellite datasets and NASA’s MERRA-2 reanalysis which assimilates aerosol observations. I conclude volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols over SE Asia are the sole cause of all ENSO events.

The natural flow regime within a watershed can be considered as the expected temporal patterns of streamflow variation in the absence of human impacts. While ecosystems have evolved to function under these conditions, the natural flow regime of most rivers has been significantly altered by human activities. Land use change, including the development of agriculture and urbanization, is a primary cause of the loss of natural flow regimes. These changes have altered discharge volume, timing, and variability, and consequently affected the structure and functioning of river ecosystems. The Meramec River watershed is located in east central Missouri and changes in land use have been the primary factor impacting flow regimes across the watershed. In this study, a watershed model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), was developed to simulate a long-term time series of streamflow (1978-2014) within the watershed. Model performance was evaluated using statistical metrics and graphical technique including R-squared, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, cumulative error, and 1:1-ratio comparison between observed and simulated variables. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then used to quantify the responses of the watershed when it was a forested natural landscape. An Indicator of Hydrologic Alteration (IHA) approach was applied to characterize the flow regime under the current landcover conditions as well as the simulated natural flow regime under the no land use change scenario. Differences in intra- and inter-annual ecologically relevant flow metrics were then compared using SWAT model outputs in conjunction with the IHA approach based on model outputs from current and no land use change conditions. This study provides a watershed-scale understanding of effects of land use change on a river’s flow variability and provides a framework for the development of restoration plans for heavily altered watersheds.

Most climate change impacts are linked to terrestrial vegetation productivity, carbon stocks and land use change. Changes in land use and climate drive the dynamics of terrestrial carbon cycle. These carbon cycle dynamics operate at different spatial and temporal scales. Quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of carbon flux has been challenging because land-atmosphere-carbon exchange is influenced by many factors, including but not limited to, land use change and climate change and variability. The study of terrestrial carbon cycle, mainly gross primary product (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), soil organic carbon (SOC) and ecosystem respiration (Re) and their interactions with land use and climate change, are critical to understanding the terrestrial ecosystem. The main objective of this study was to examine the interactions among land use, climate change and terrestrial carbon cycling in the state of Texas using satellite measurements. We studied GPP, NEE, Re and SOC distributions for five selected major land covers and all ten climate zones in Texas using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) carbon products. SMAP Carbon products (Res=9 km) were compared with observed CO2 flux data measured at EC flux site on Prairie View A&M University Research Farm. Results showed the same land cover in different climate zones has significantly different carbon sequestration potentials. For example, cropland of the humid climate zone has higher (-228 g C/m2) carbon sequestration potentials than the semiarid climate zone (-36 g C/m2). Also, shrub land in the humid zone and in the semiarid zone showed high (-120 g C/m2) and low (-36 g C/m2) potentials of carbon sequestration, respectively, in the state. Overall, the analyses indicate CO2 storage and exchange respond differently to various land covers, and environments due to differences in water availability, root distribution and soil properties.

Wave breaking transfers momentum between waves to currents. In doing so it dissipates wave energy and affects long-term dispersion and transport of tracers, Wave breaking also affects the transfer of wind stresses to the ocean and is a major player in ocean acoustics, the dynamics of near-surface gas exchanges and the dynamics of phytoplankton and buoyant pollutants. Progressive waves were generated numerically using Gerris [6]. The velocity field was then used to estimate Lagrangian parcel dynamics in the neighborhood of the breaking event. The trans- port generated by the breaking events is shown to be significant, when compared to the wave-generated residual flow, as captured by the Stokes drift. We formulate a parametrization of the break- ing velocity based upon an analysis of the Largrangian dynamics of fluid parcels. Further, we describe how the breaking velocity is incorporated in the vortex force formulation of wave current interactions [1, 2].

In this work we extend previous studies by exploring the potential impact of spectroscopic knowledge along with atmospheric state knowledge on retrievals of carbon dioxide (XCO2) and methane (XCH4) column amounts from laser differential absorption spectrometer (LAS) measurements. This has been done for multiple CO2 absorption lines in the 1.57 and 2.05 μm regions, and for CH4 in the 1.65 μm region. One such potential source of error in performing XCO2 retrievals is modeled surface pressure. Since it has been proposed to derive surface pressure from LAS-based O2 measurements in lieu of modeled surface pressure for use in XCO2 retrievals as a means of error reduction, our past work has also attempted to characterize and quantify potential improvements in XCO2 retrieval error associated with O2-derived surface pressure for a set of CO2 and O2 absorption line combinations. All of our previous analyses have relied on a radiative-transfer-based simulation framework utilizing the Line-by-Line Radiative Transfer Model (LBLRTM), version 12.2 (release date November, 2012). LBLRTM has undergone several upgrades since version 12.2, to include updates to its line parameter database, updates to its continuum model, and bug fixes. Our current work revisits our prior assessments using the latest version of LBLRTM (version 12.8) and comparisons are provided and discussed.

The response of atmospheric variability to the Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) at interannual to decadal time-scales has been extensively investigated. However, the response of the atmosphere to the subseasonal variability of the TPSC has been largely ignored. Here, we found that the subseasonal variability of the TPSC revealed by daily data can serve as an indicator of East Asian atmospheric circulation on medium-range time-scales (approximately 3–7 days in advance). The subseasonal variability of the TPSC influences the upper-level regional atmospheric circulations, especially the East Asia upper-level westerly jet stream (EAJS), during wintertime. The variability of the TPSC modulates the land surface thermal conditions over the TP, which acts as an elevated cooling source in the middle troposphere during wintertime. The upper-level geopotential height is affected by the TPSC and then the zonal wind. As a result, the EAJS is influenced.

Long-term soil moisture datasets at high spatial resolution are important in agricultural, hydrological, and climatic applications. The soil moisture estimates can be achieved using satellite remote sensing observations. However, the satellite soil moisture data are typically available at coarse spatial resolutions (~ several tens of km), therefore require further downscaling. Different satellite soil moisture products have to be conjointly employed in developing a consistent time-series of high resolution soil moisture, while the discrepancies amongst different satellite retrievals need to be resolved. This study aims to downscale three different satellite soil moisture products, the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS, 25 km), the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP, 36 km) and the SMAP-Enhanced (9 km), and to conduct an inter-comparison of the downscaled results. The downscaling approach is developed based on the relationship between the diurnal temperature difference and the daily mean soil moisture content. The approach is applied to two sub-catchments (Krui and Merriwa River) of the Goulburn River catchment in the Upper Hunter region (NSW, Australia) to estimate soil moisture at 1 km resolution for 2015. The three coarse spatial resolution soil moisture products and their downscaled results will be validated with the in-situ observations obtained from the Scaling and Assimilation of Soil Moisture and Streamflow (SASMAS) network. The spatial and temporal patterns of the downscaled results will also be analysed. This study will provide the necessary insights for data selection and bias corrections to maintain the consistency of a long-term high resolution soil moisture dataset. The results will assist in developing a time-series of high resolution soil moisture data over the south-eastern Australia.

Turbidity currents transport vast quantities of sediment across the seafloor and form the largest sediment accumulations on Earth. These flows pose a hazard to strategically important seafloor infrastructure and are important agents for the transport of organic carbon and nutrients that support deep-sea ecosystems. Therefore, it is important to quantify the scale of these flows, the amount of sediment they transport, and the evolution of their discharge over time and space along their flow path. Two modes of flow evolution have been proposed based on experimental and numerical models. The first is termed ignition, where flows entrain seafloor sediment, becoming more voluminous and powerful and increasing their discharge. In the second mode of evolution, called dissipation, sediment falls out of suspension, so flows decelerate and lose discharge. Thus far, field-scale turbidity currents have only been measured at a handful of sites worldwide, and never in detail at multiple locations along their full course. Therefore, it has not yet been possible to determine when, where, and why flows diverge into these two modes in the deep sea, or how flow discharge varies. The ambitious multi-institution Coordinated Canyon Experiment measured turbidity currents at seven instrumented moorings along the Monterey Canyon, offshore California. Fifteen flows were recorded, including the fastest events yet measured at high resolution (>8 m/s). This remarkable dataset provides the first opportunity to quantify down-channel sediment and flow discharge evolution of turbidity currents in the deep sea. To understand whether flows ignite or dissipate, we derive total and sediment discharges for each of the flows at all seven mooring locations down the canyon. Discharges are calculated from measured velocities, and sediment concentrations are derived using a novel inversion method. We observe two distinct flow modes, as most flows rapidly dissipated in the upper reaches of the canyon, while three ran out for the full 50 km array length. We then explore why only these three flows ignited and discuss the implications for canyon and channel capacity and evolution.

Electric field mills are used popularly for atmospheric electric field measurements. Atmospheric Electric Field variation is the primary signature for Lightning Early Warning systems. There is a characteristic change in the atmospheric electric field before lightning during a thundercloud formation. A voltage controlled variable capacitance is being proposed as a method for non-contacting measurement of electric fields. A varactor based mini electric field measurement system is developed, to detect any change in the atmospheric electric field and to issue lightning early warning system. Since this is a low-cost device, this can be used for developing countries which are facing adversities. A network of these devices can help in forming a spatial map of electric field variations over a region, and this can be used for more improved atmospheric electricity studies in developing countries.

A transient period of climate change, characterized by a global warming of ~2.5–5°C followed by a cooling to pre-excursion conditions, occurred during the last 300 kyr of the Maastrichtian (~66.34–66.02 Ma). This instability may have played a role in destabilizing marine and terrestrial ecosystems, priming the system for abrupt extinction at the K-Pg boundary, likely triggered by a large bolide impact. This pre-K-Pg warming event has often been linked to the main phase of Deccan Trap volcanism, however large uncertainties associated with radio-isotopic dating methods of basalts, along with low sedimentation rates and hiatuses in many studied sedimentary sequences, have long hampered a definitive correlation. To complement recent advances in dating of the traps, we have generated the first complete and highest resolution (2.5–4 kyr) benthic stable δ13C and δ18O record for the final million years of the Maastrichtian using the epifaunal foraminifera species Nuttallides truempyi from ODP Site 1262, Walvis Ridge, South Atlantic, calibrated to an updated orbitally-tuned age model. We then compare our data to other previously published geochemical data from other sites in the high, middle, and low latitudes. Our data confirms that the onset of the warming event coincides with the onset of the main phase of Deccan volcanism, strongly suggesting a causal link. Furthermore, spectral analysis of our extended late Maastrichtian-Early Eocene record suggests that the onset of the warming event corresponds to a 405-kyr eccentricity minima, in contrast to many transient warming events (hyperthermals) of the Paleogene, suggesting a control by orbital forcing alone is unlikely. A peculiar feature of the event, compared to other hyperthermals, is a muted carbon cycle response during warming, which may be related to the comparatively heavier δ13C signature of volcanogenic CO2 (–7‰), compared to other sources of light carbon invoked to explain Paleogene hyperthermals. The warming event coincided with minor extinctions of thermocline-dwelling foraminifera, along with dwarfing and blooms of the opportunistic disaster genera Guembelitria, suggesting that Deccan-induced climatic instability may have played a role in priming high-stress ecosystems which were tipped over a threshold into mass extinction during bolide impact.

Tikhonov’s regularization method is the standard technique applied to obtain models of the subsurface conductivity dis- tribution from electric or electromagnetic measurements by solving UT (m) = ||F(m) - d||^2 + P(m): The second term correspond to the stabilizing functional, with P(m) = ||m||^2 the usual approach, and the regularization parameter. Due to the roughness penalizer inclusion, the model developed by Tikhonov’s algorithm tends to smear discontinuities, a feature that may be undesirable. An important requirement for the regularizer is to allow the recovery of edges, and smooth the homogeneous parts. As is well known, Total Variation (TV) is now the standard approach to meet this requirement. Recently, Wang et.al. proved convergence for alternating direction method of multipliers in nonconvex, nonsmooth optimization. In this work we present a study of several algorithms for model recovering of Geosounding data based on Inmal Convolution, and also on hybrid, TV and second order TV and nonsmooth, nonconvex regularizers, observing their performance on synthetic and real data. The algorithms are based on Bregman iteration and Split Bregman method, and the geosounding method is the low-induction numbers magnetic dipoles. Non-smooth regularizers are considered using the Legendre-Fenchel transform.

Klinkenberg-corrected gas permeability (k) estimation in tight-gas sandstones is essential for gas exploration and production in low-permeability porous rocks. Most models for estimating k are a function of porosity (ϕ), tortuosity (τ), pore shape factor (s) and a characteristic length scale (lc). Estimation of the latter, however, has been the subject of debate in the literature. Here we invoke two different upscaling approaches from statistical physics: (1) the EMA and (2) critical path analysis (CPA) to estimate lc from pore throat-size distribution derived from mercury intrusion capillary pressure (MICP) curve. τ is approximated from: (1) concepts of percolation theory and (2) formation resistivity factor measurements (F = τ/ϕ). We then estimate k of eighteen tight-gas sandstones from lc, τ, and ϕ by assuming two different pore shapes: cylindrical and slit-shaped. Comparison with Klinkenberg-corrected k measurements showed that τ was estimated more accurately from F measurements than from percolation theory. Generally speaking, our results implied that the EMA estimated k within a factor of two of the measurements and more precisely than CPA. We further found that the assumption of cylindrical pores yielded more accurate k estimates when τ was estimated from concepts of percolation theory than the assumption of slit-shaped pores. However, the EMA with slit-shaped pores estimated k more precisely than that with cylindrical pores when τ was estimated from F measurements.

Our increasingly robust history of ancient climates indicates that high latitude glaciation is the ultimate product of an episodic cooling trend that began about 100-million years ago rather than a result of a yet-to-be identified modal change. Antarctic geography (continent surrounded by ocean) allowed ice to develop prior to significant glaciation in the Northern Hemisphere (ocean surrounded by land), but global ice volume generally increased as Earth cooled. The question of what caused the Ice Ages should be reframed as to “What caused the Cenozoic Cooling?” Records tell us that changes in temperature and CO2 levels rise and fall together, however it is not clear when CO2 acts as a driver versus when it is primarily an indicator of temperature change. The episodic nature of the cooling trend suggests other more dynamic phenomena are involved. It is proposed that oceanic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) plays a significant role in regulating Earth’s surface temperature. Robust MOC has a cooling effect which results from its sequestration of cold waters (together with their increased heat-absorbing potential) below the surface. Unable to better absorb equatorial insolation for great lengths of time, oceanic deep waters are not able to fully compensate for the heat lost by warm-water transport to Polar Regions. A lag-time between cooling and subsequent warming yields lower operating temperatures commensurate with the strength of global MOC. The long-term decline in global temperatures is largely explained by the tectonic reshaping of ocean basins and the connections between them such that MOC has generally, but not uniformly, increased. Geophysically Influenced MOC (GIMOC) has caused a significant proportion of the lowering of global temperatures in the Cenozoic Era. Short-term disruptions in MOC (and subsequent impacts on global temperatures) were likely involved in Late Pleistocene glacial termination events and may already be compounding present anthropogenic CO2 induced warming. The immediate impacts of AMOC strength on North Atlantic and European temperatures coupled with the delayed and opposing effects on global temperatures offer explanations for phenomena including: Younger Dryas, Little Ice Age and the bipolar seesaw. (Please see supplemental file: Oceanic Geophysics & History of Climate(ver #02).pdf listed below.)

Consisting of charged particles originating from the Sun, the solar wind carries the Sun’s energy and magnetic field outward through interplanetary space. The solar wind is the predominant source of space weather events, and modeling the solar wind propagation to Earth is a critical component of space weather research. Solar wind models are typically separated into coronal and heliospheric parts to account for the different physical processes and scales characterizing each region. Coronal models are often coupled with heliospheric models to propagate the solar wind out to Earth’s orbit and beyond. The Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model is a semi-empirical coronal model consisting of a potential field source surface model and a current sheet model that takes synoptic magnetograms as input to estimate the magnetic field and solar wind speed at any distance above the coronal region. The current version of the WSA model takes the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model as input to provide improved time-varying solutions for the ambient solar wind structure. When heliospheric MHD models are coupled with the WSA model, density and temperature at the inner boundary are treated as free parameters that are tuned to optimal values. For example, the WSA-ENLIL model prescribes density and temperature assuming momentum flux and thermal pressure balance across the inner boundary of the ENLIL heliospheric MHD model. We consider an alternative approach of prescribing density and temperature using empirical correlations derived from Ulysses and OMNI data. We use our own modeling software (Multi-scale Fluid-kinetic Simulation Suite) to drive a heliospheric MHD model with ADAPT-WSA input. The modeling results using the two different approaches of density and temperature prescription suggest that the use of empirical correlations may be a more straightforward, consistent method.

Although the Brown mathematical model is the standard model for waveform retracking over open oceans, coastal waveforms usually deviate from open ocean waveform shapes due to inhomogeneous surface reflections within altimeter footprints, and thus cannot be directly interpreted by the Brown model. Generally, the two primary sources of heterogeneous surface reflections are land surfaces and bright targets such as calm surface water. The former reduces echo power, while the latter often produces particularly strong echoes. In previous studies, sub-waveform retrackers, which use waveform samples collected from around leading edges in order to avoid trailing edge noise, have been recommended for coastal waveform retracking. In the present study, the peaky-type noise caused by fixed-point bright targets is explicitly detected and masked using the parabolic signature in the sequential along-track waveforms (or, azimuth-range echograms). Moreover, the power deficit of waveform trailing edges caused by weak land reflections is compensated for by estimating the ratio of sea surface area within each annular footprint in order to produce pseudo-homogeneous reflected waveforms suitable for the Brown model. Using this method, Jason-2 altimeter waveforms are retracked in several coastal areas. Our results show that both the correlation coefficient and root mean square difference between the derived sea surface height anomalies and tide gauge records retain similar values at the open ocean (0.9 and 20 cm) level, even in areas approaching 3 km from coastlines, which is considerably improved from the 10 km correlation coefficient limit of the conventional MLE4 retracker and the 7 km sub-waveform ALES retracker limit. These values, however, depend on the coastal topography of the study areas because the approach distance limit increases (decreases) in areas with complicated (straight) coastlines.

The American Geophysical Union (AGU) is committed to inspiring and educating present and future generations of diverse, innovative, and creative Earth and space scientists. To meet our commitment, AGU provides career and educational resources, webinars, mentoring, and support for students and professionals at each level of development to reduce barriers to achievement and to promote professional advancement. AGU is also working with other organizations and educational institutions to collaborate on projects benefiting the greater geoscience community. The presentation will include an overview of current Pathfinder efforts, collaborative efforts, and an appeal for additional partnerships.

Maar-diatremes are inverted conical structures formed by subterranean excavation and remobilization of country rocks during explosive volcanism and common in mafic volcanic fields. We focus on impacts of excavation and filling of maar-diatremes on the local state of stress, and its subsequent influence on underlying feeder dikes, which are critical for understanding the development of intrusive networks that feed surface eruptions. We address this issue using finite element models in COMSOL Multiphysics®. Inverted conical structures of varying sizes are excavated in a gravitationally loaded elastic half-space, and then progressively filled with volcaniclastic material, resulting in changes in the orientations and magnitudes of stresses generated within surrounding rocks and within the filling portion of the maar-diatreme. Our results show that rapid unloading during maar-diatreme excavation generates a horizontal compressive stress state beneath diatremes. These stresses allow magma to divert laterally as saucer-shaped sills and circumferential dikes at varying depths in the shallow feeder system, and produce intrusion geometries consistent with both field observations from exhumed volcanic fields and conceptual models of diatreme growth. Stresses generated in these models also provide an explanation for the evolving locations of fragmentation zones over the course of diatreme’s filling. In particular, results from this study suggest that: (1) extensional stresses at the base of the diatreme fill favor magma ascent in the lower half of the structure, and possibly promote volatile exsolution and magma fragmentation; and (2) increased filling of diatremes creates a shallow compressive stress state that can inhibit magma ascent to the surface, promoting widespread intra-diatreme explosions, efficient mixing of host rock, and upward widening of the diatreme structure.

During enhanced magnetic activities, large ejections of energetic electrons from radiation belts are deposited in the upper polar atmosphere where they play important roles in its physical and chemical processes, including VLF signals subionospheric propagation. Electron deposition can affect D-Region ionization, which are estimated based on ionization rates derived from energy depositions. We present a model of D-region ion production caused by an arbitrary (in energy and pitch angle) distribution of fast (10 keV - 1 MeV) electrons. The model relies on a set of pre-calculated results obtained using a general Monte Carlo approach with the latest version of the MCNP6 (Monte Carlo N-Particle) code for the explicit electron tracking in magnetic fields. By expressing those results using the ionization yield functions, the pre-calculated results are extended to cover arbitrary magnetic field inclinations and atmospheric density profiles, allowing ionization rate altitude profile computations in the range of 20 and 200 km at any geographic point of interest and date/time by adopting results from an external atmospheric density model (e.g. NRLMSISE-00). The pre-calculated MCNP6 results are stored in a CDF (Common Data Format) file, and IDL routines library is written to provide an end-user interface to the model.