Conservation of breeding seabirds typically requires detailed data on where they feed at sea. Ecological niche models (ENMs) can fill data gaps, but rarely perform well when transferred to new regions. Alternatively, the foraging radius approach simply encircles the sea surrounding a breeding seabird colony (a foraging circle), but overestimates foraging habitat. Here, we investigate whether ENMs can transfer (predict) foraging niches of breeding tropical seabirds between global colonies, and whether ENMs can refine foraging circles. We collate a large global dataset of tropical seabird tracks (12000 trips, 16 species, 60 colonies) to build a comprehensive summary of tropical seabird foraging ranges and to train ENMs. We interrogate ENM transferability and assess the confidence with which unsuitable habitat predicted by ENMs can be excluded from within foraging circles. We apply this refinement framework to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia to identify a network of candidate marine protected areas (MPAs) for seabirds. We found little ability to generalise and transfer breeding tropical seabird foraging niches across all colonies for any species (mean AUC: 0.56, range 0.4-0.82). Low global transferability was partially explained by colony clusters that predicted well internally but other colony clusters poorly. After refinement with ENMs, foraging circles still contained 89% of known foraging areas from tracking data, providing confidence that important foraging habitat was not erroneously excluded by greater refinement from high transferability ENMs nor minor refinement from low transferability ENMs. Foraging radii estimated the total foraging area of the GBR breeding seabird community as 2,941,000 km2, which was refined by excluding between 197,000 km2 and 1,826,000 km2 of unsuitable foraging habitat. ENMs trained on local GBR tracking achieved superior refinement over globally trained models, demonstrating the value of local tracking. Our framework demonstrates an effective method to delineate candidate MPAs for breeding seabirds in data-poor regions.

Bio-logging has revealed much about high-latitude seabird migratory strategies, but tropical species are comparatively understudied. Here we use geolocators to study the year-round movement behaviour of adult red-footed boobies (Sula sula rubripes) from the Chagos Archipelago, tropical Indian Ocean. Light levels suggest that red-footed boobies are resident in the archipelago year-round, although there are large latitudinal errors this close to the equator. However, immersion data revealed tracked birds returned to land year-round, with no extended at-sea periods, further indicating this population is non-migratory. Our findings have important implications for seabird conservation and phylogenetics, as well as for assessing the impact of seabird nutrients on coral reef ecosystems.

Spatial and temporal distribution of seabird transiting and foraging at sea is an important consideration for marine conservation planning. Using at-sea observations of seabirds (n = 317), collected during the breeding season from 2012 to 2016, we built boosted regression tree (BRT) models to identify relationships between numerically dominant seabird species (red-footed booby, brown noddy, white tern and wedge-tailed shearwater), geomorphology, oceanographic variability, and climate oscillation in the Chagos Archipelago. We documented positive relationships between red-footed booby and wedge-tailed shearwater abundance with the strength in the Indian Ocean Dipole, as represented by the Dipole Mode Index (6.7% and 23.7% contribution respectively). The abundance of red-footed boobies, brown noddies and white terns declined abruptly with greater distance to island (17.6%, 34.1% and 41.1% contribution respectively). We further quantified the effects of proximity to rat-free and rat-invaded islands on seabird distribution at sea, and identify breaking point distribution thresholds. We identified areas of increased abundance at sea and habitat use-age under a scenario where rats are eradicated from invaded nearby islands and recolonised by seabirds. Following rat eradication, abundance at sea of red-footed booby, brown noddy, and white terns increased by 14%, 17% and 3% respectively, with no important increase detected for shearwaters. Our results have implication for seabird conservation and island restoration. Climate oscillations may cause shifts in seabird distribution, possibly through changes in regional productivity and prey distribution. Invasive species eradications and subsequent island recolonization can lead to greater access for seabirds to areas at-sea, due to increased foraging or transiting through, potentially leading to distribution gains and increased competition. Our approach predicting distribution after successful eradications enables anticipatory threat-mitigation in these areas, minimising competition between colonies and thereby maximising the risk of success and the conservation impact of eradication programmes.