Disentangling Conditional Effects of Multiple Regime Shifts on Atlantic
Cod Productivity
Abstract
Regime shifts are increasingly prevalent in the ecological literature.
However, definitions vary, and many detection methods are subjective.
Here, we employ an operationally objective means of identifying regime
shifts, using a Bayesian online change-point detection algorithm able to
simultaneously identify shifts in the mean and(or) variance of time
series data. We detected multiple regime shifts in long-term (59-154
years) patterns of coastal Norwegian Atlantic cod (>70%
decline) and putative drivers of cod productivity: North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO); sea-surface temperature; zooplankton abundance;
fishing mortality (F). The consequences of an environmental or
climate-related regime shift on cod productivity are accentuated when
regime shifts coincide, fishing mortality is high, and populations are
small. The analyses suggest that increasing F increasingly sensitized
cod in the mid 1970s and late 1990s to regime shifts in NAO, zooplankton
abundance, and water temperature. Our work underscores the necessity of
accounting for human-induced mortality in RS analyses of marine
ecosystems.