We present the results for CAPRI Round 54, the 5th joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round offered 37 targets, including 14 homo-dimers, 3 homo-trimers, 13 hetero-dimers including 3 antibody-antigen complexes, and 7 large assemblies. On average ~70 CASP and CAPRI predictor groups, including more than 20 automatics servers, submitted models for each target. A total of 21941 models submitted by these groups and by 15 CAPRI scorer groups were evaluated using the CAPRI model quality measures and the DockQ score consolidating these measures. The prediction performance was quantified by a weighted score based on the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group among their 5 best models. Results show substantial progress achieved across a significant fraction of the 60+ participating groups. High-quality models were produced for about 40% for the targets compared to 8% two years earlier, a remarkable improvement resulting from the wide use of the AlphaFold2 and AlphaFold-Multimer software. Creative use was made of the deep learning inference engines affording the sampling of a much larger number of models and enriching the multiple sequence alignments with sequences from various sources. Wide use was also made of the AlphaFold confidence metrics to rank models, permitting top performing groups to exceed the results of the public AlphaFold-Multimer version used as a yard stick. This notwithstanding, performance remained poor for complexes with antibodies and nanobodies, where evolutionary relationships between the binding partners are lacking, and for complexes featuring conformational flexibility, clearly indicating that the prediction of protein complexes remains a challenging problem.

Estimating the accuracy of quaternary structural models of protein complexes and assemblies (EMA) is important for predicting quaternary structures and applying them to studying protein function and interaction. The pairwise similarity between structural models is proven useful for estimating the quality of protein tertiary structural models, but it has been rarely applied to predicting the quality of quaternary structural models. Moreover, the pairwise similarity approach often fails when many structural models are of low quality and similar to each other. To address the gap, we developed a hybrid method (MULTICOM_qa) combining a pairwise similarity score (PSS) and an interface contact probability score (ICPS) based on the deep learning inter-chain contact prediction for estimating protein complex model accuracy. It blindly participated in the 15th Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP15) in 2022 and ranked first out of 24 predictors in estimating the global accuracy of assembly models. The average per-target correlation coefficient between the model quality scores predicted by MULTICOM_qa and the true quality scores of the models of CASP15 assembly targets is 0.66. The average per-target ranking loss in using the predicted quality scores to rank the models is 0.14. It was able to select good models for most targets. Moreover, several key factors (i.e., target difficulty, model sampling difficulty, skewness of model quality, and similarity between good/bad models) for EMA are identified and analayzed. The results demonstrate that combining the multi-model method (PSS) with the complementary single-model method (ICPS) is a promising approach to EMA.

The information about the domain architecture of proteins is useful for studying protein structure and function. However, accurate prediction of protein domain boundaries (i.e., sequence regions separating two domains) from sequence remains a significant challenge. In this work, we develop a deep learning method based on multi-head U-Nets (called DistDom) to predict protein domain boundaries utilizing 1D sequence features and predicted 2D inter-residue distance map as input. The 1D features contain the evolutionary and physicochemical information of protein sequences, whereas the 2D distance map includes the structural information of proteins that was rarely used in domain boundary prediction before. The 1D and 2D features are processed by the 1D and 2D U-Nets respectively to generate hidden features. The hidden features are then used by the multi-head attention to predict the probability of each residue of a protein being in a domain boundary, leveraging both local and global information in the features. The residue-level domain boundary predictions can be used to classify proteins as single-domain or multi-domain proteins. It classifies the CASP14 single-domain and multi-domain targets at the accuracy of 72.7%, 8.02% more accurate than the state-of-the-art method. Tested on the CASP14 multi-domain protein targets with expert annotated domain boundaries, the average per-target F1 measure score of the domain boundary prediction by DistDom is 0.241, 18.72% higher than the state-of-the-art method.

Substantial progresses in protein structure prediction have been made by utilizing deep-learning and residue-residue distance prediction since CASP13. Inspired by the advances, we improve our CASP14 MULTICOM protein structure prediction system in three main aspects: (1) a new deep learning based protein inter-residue distance predictor (DeepDist) to improve template-free (ab initio) tertiary structure prediction, (2) an enhanced template-based tertiary structure prediction method, and (3) distance-based model quality assessment methods empowered by deep learning. In the 2020 CASP14 experiment, MULTICOM predictor was ranked 7th out of 146 predictors in protein tertiary structure prediction and ranked 3rd out of 136 predictors in inter-domain structure predic-tion. The results of MULTICOM demonstrate that the template-free modeling based on deep learning and residue-residue distance prediction can predict the correct topology for almost all template-based modeling targets and a majority of hard targets (template-free targets or targets whose templates cannot be recognized), which is a significant improvement over the CASP13 MULTICOM predictor. The performance of template-free tertiary structure prediction largely depends on the accuracy of distance pre-dictions that is closely related to the quality of multiple sequence alignments. The structural model quality assessment works reasonably well on targets for which a sufficient number of good models can be predicted, but may perform poorly when only a few good models are predicted for a hard target and the distribution of model quality scores is highly skewed.

Deep learning has emerged as a revolutionary technology for protein residue-residue contact prediction since the 2012 CASP10 competition. Considerable advancements in the predictive power of the deep learning-based contact predictions have been achieved since then. However, little effort has been put into interpreting the black-box deep learning methods. Algorithms that can interpret the relationship between predicted contact maps and the internal mechanism of the deep learning architectures are needed to explore the essential components of contact inference and improve their explainability. In this study, we present an attention-based convolutional neural network for protein contact prediction, which consists of two attention mechanism-based modules: sequence attention and regional attention. Our benchmark results on the CASP13 free-modeling (FM) targets demonstrate that the two attention modules added on top of existing typical deep learning models exhibit a complementary effect that contributes to predictive improvements. More importantly, the inclusion of the attention mechanism provides interpretable patterns that contain useful insights into the key fold-determining residues in proteins. We expect the attention-based model can provide a reliable and practically interpretable technique that helps break the current bottlenecks in explaining deep neural networks for contact prediction. The source code of our method is available at https://github.com/jianlin-cheng/InterpretContactMap.

Accurate prediction of protein secondary structure (alpha-helix, beta-strand and coil) is a crucial step for protein inter-residue contact prediction and ab initio tertiary structure prediction. In a previous study, we developed a deep belief network-based protein secondary structure method (DNSS1) and successfully advanced the prediction accuracy beyond 80%. In this work, we developed multiple advanced deep learning architectures (DNSS2) to further improve secondary structure prediction. The major improvements over the DNSS1 method include (i) designing and integrating six advanced one-dimensional deep convolutional/recurrent/residual/memory/fractal/inception networks to predict secondary structure, and (ii) using more sensitive profile features inferred from Hidden Markov model (HMM) and multiple sequence alignment (MSA). Most of the deep learning architectures are novel for protein secondary structure prediction. DNSS2 was systematically benchmarked on two independent test datasets with eight state-of-art tools and consistently ranked as one of the best methods. Particularly, DNSS2 was tested on the 82 protein targets of 2018 CASP13 experiment and achieved the best Q3 score of 83.74% and SOV score of 72.46%. DNSS2 is freely available at: https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/DNSS2.