Optimizing targeted gene flow to maximize local genetic diversity: when
and how to act under various scenarios of environmental change.
Abstract
Targeted gene flow is an emerging conservation approach which involves
introducing a cohort of individuals with particular traits to locations
where they can effect a conservation benefit. This technique is being
proposed to adapt recipient populations to a known threat, but questions
remain surrounding how best to maximize conservation outcomes during
periods of continuous directional environmental change. Here we
introduce a new management objective — to keep the recipient
population extant and with maximum diversity of local alleles — and we
explore how varying the timing and size of a given introduction can
maximise this objective. Our results reveal a trade-off between keeping
a population extant and maintaining a high level of genetic diversity,
but management levers can often optimize this so that nearly 100% of
the allelic diversity is preserved. These optimum outcomes sets are
highly sensitive to the predicted rate of environmental shift, as well
as the level of outbreeding depression in the system.