Testing the Asthma Predictive Index as a diagnostic tool in
preschoolers: analysis of a longitudinal birth cohort
Abstract
Diagnosing asthma in preschool children remains an unsolved challenge,
at a time when early identification would allow for better education and
treatment to prevent morbidity and lung function deterioration.
Objective: To evaluate if the Asthma Predictive Index (API) can be used
as surrogate for asthma diagnosis in preschoolers. Methods: Birth cohort
of 339 pregnant women enrolled at delivery and their offspring, who were
followed for atopy, wheezing, and other respiratory illnesses through 30
months of age. The API was determined at 30 months of age by the
researchers; and examined its association with physician-diagnosed
asthma during the first 30 months, made independently by the primary
care physician not involved in the study. Results: Among 307 offspring
with complete follow-up, 44 (14.3%) were API+. Maternal body mass
index, maternal education, past oral contraceptive use, birthweight,
placenta weight, age of daycare at 12m, gastroesophageal reflux disease
at 12m, acute otitis media at 18m, bronchiolitis, croup and pneumonia,
cord blood adiponectin were all associated with API+. In the
multivariable analysis, API+ was associated with almost 6-fold odds of
asthma diagnosis (adjusted OR= 5.7, 95% CI [2.6-12.3]), after
adjusting for the relevant covariates above including respiratory
infections like bronchiolitis and pneumonia. The API sensitivity was
48%, specificity 92%, 61% PPV, 88% NPV, 6.4 LR+, 0.56 LR-, 0.84
diagnosis accuracy. The adjusted odds for asthma was 11.4. Conclusions:
This longitudinal birth cohort suggests, for first time, that API could
be used as a diagnostic tool, not only as a prognostic tool, in toddlers
and preschoolers.