loading page

Divergence of discrete-- versus continuous--time calculations of the temperature dependence of maximum population growth rate in a disease vector
  • +1
  • Paul Huxley,
  • Leah Johnson,
  • Lauren Cator,
  • Samraat Pawar
Paul Huxley
Imperial College London

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Leah Johnson
Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Author Profile
Lauren Cator
Imperial College London
Author Profile
Samraat Pawar
Imperial College London
Author Profile

Abstract

The temperature dependence of maximal population growth rate (rm) is key to predicting ectotherm responses to climatic change. Matrix projection models (MPMs) are used to calculate rm because they can incorporate variation and inherent time-delays in underlying life-history traits. However, MPM calculations can be laborious and do not reflect time’s continuous nature. Ordinary differential equation-based models (ODEMs) offer a relatively tractable alternative, but it is largely unknown whether ODEM-based calculations and MPM broadly agree when environmental variation affects temperature–dependent rm by introducing time-delays and altering juvenile survival trajectories. We investigate differences in predicted temperature-dependent rm from an ODEM with that calculated from MPMs using temperature– and resource-dependent life-history trait data for the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti. We show that discrete- and continuous-time calculations of temperature-dependent rm can vary with resource availability and are sensitive to juvenile survival characterisations, suggesting ODEMs can provide comparable temperature–dependent rm calculations unless resources are constraining.