Prognostic factors and survival score for patients with anaplastic
thyroid carcinoma: a retrospective study from a regional registry
Abstract
BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Anaplastic thyroid carcinoma (ATC) is the least
common but most lethal of thyroid cancers despite various therapeutic
options with limited efficacy. Some prognostic factors were identified
in patients with ATC and a few patients survive for a relatively long
time after modern intensive treatment. In order to help therapeutic
decision-making, the purpose of this study was to develop a new
prognostic score providing survival estimates in patients with ATC.
METHODS Based on a multivariate analysis of 149 retrospectively analyzed
patients diagnosed with ATC from 1968 to 2017 at a referral center, a
propensity score was developed. A model was generated providing survival
probability at 6 months and median overall survival estimates. RESULTS
The median survival was 96 days. The overall survival rate was 35% at 6
months, 20% at 1 year and 13% at 2 years. Most of the patients (86%)
died within 17 month, 17% died within the first month, 35% lived for
1–6 months and 47 % of the patients lived longer than 6 months after
the initial consultation. The stepwise Cox regression revealed that the
most appropriate death prediction model included metastatic spread,
tumor size and age class as explanatory variables. This model made it
possible to define three categories of patients with survival profiles
which seems different: patients with no pejorative prognostic factor
which had a survival probability at 6 months = 0,84 (95% CI: 0,69-1),
patients with one or two pejoratives prognostics factors which have a
survival probability at 6 months = 0,32 (95% CI: 0,22-0,46), and those
with three pejoratives prognostics factors which had a survival
probability at 6 months = 0,11 (95% CI: 0,018 - 0,71). CONCLUSION
Distant metastasis, age and primary tumor size are strong independent
factors that affect prognosis in patients with ATC. Using these
significant pretreatment factors, we developed a score to predict
survival in these poor prognosis patients in order to provide
easy-to-use tools for clinical practice. External validation in an
additional dataset is needed for further outlooks.