Assessment of risk factors of African Swine Fever in India: perspectives
on future outbreaks and control strategies
Abstract
Africa Swine Fever (ASF) is one of the most important transboundary
diseases of pigs. ASF has been identified in India for the first time in
domestic pigs from outbreaks reported in two of the North-Eastern
states, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in 2020. A total of 11 ASF outbreaks
in different regions killed over 3700 pigs and devastated the economy of
small-scale livestock owners of both the states. Considering the first
outbreak of ASF in India, a generic risk assessment framework was
determined to identify potential risk factors that might favour future
emergence of the disease. Based on Indian scenario, we considered
population density of host, farming practice, availability of biological
vectors and wildlife reservoirs, epidemiological cycles and
international trade to analyze the possibility of future outbreaks and
chances of establishment of endemism. On critical analysis of the
identified risk factors, we observed that the risk factors are well
preserved in Indian geography and might participate in future outbreaks
further disseminating the disease to nearby countries. Since no vaccine
is currently available against ASF, the domestic and the wild-pigs (wild
boars and the endangered pygmy hogs native to India) of this region are
under constant threat of infection. For the near future this region will
have to continue to rely on the implementation of preventive measures to
avoid the devastating losses that outbreaks can cause. The various
adaptive control strategies to minimize the risks associated with the
transmission of ASF keeping our views to Indian settings have been
described. The risk-analysis framework presented in the study will give
a further understanding of the dynamics of disease transmission and will
help to design control strategies and corresponding measures to minimize
the catastrophic consequences of ASF disease.