Shrinkage in serial intervals across cluster transmission generations of
COVID-19
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic poses a serious threat to global health, and one
of the key epidemiological factors that shape the transmission of
COVID-19 is its serial interval (SI). Although SI is commonly considered
following a probability distribution at a population scale, slight
discrepancies in SI across different transmission generations are
observed from the aggregated statistics in recent studies. To explore
the change in SI across transmission generations, we develop a
likelihood-based statistical inference framework to examine and quantify
the change in SI. The COVID-19 contact tracing surveillance data in Hong
Kong are used for exemplification. We find that the individual SI of
COVID-19 is likely to shrink with a rate of 0.72 per generation and
95%CI: (0.54, 0.96) as the transmission generation increases. We
speculate that the shrinkage in SI is an outcome of competition among
multiple candidate infectors within a cluster of cases. The shrinkage in
SI may speed up the transmission process, and thus the nonpharmaceutical
interventive strategies are crucially important to mitigate the COVID-19
epidemic.