A pediatric pulmonologist's cumulative risk of acquiring Covid-19 in
outpatient practice
Abstract
Pediatric pulmonologists, and, indeed, general pediatricians, are
exposed to the causative virus of Covid-19 , SARS-CoV2, in their daily
outpatient practices from both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients.
This risk naturally increases with multiple exposures over time. We have
developed a simple equation to calculate the probability of a
practitioner remaining Covid free over a specified time interval, given
the local population prevalence of virus, the transmissibility of the
organism or “attack rate,” the mitigating effects of personal
protective equipment (PPE), and the number of patients seen over the
time interval. The equation can be used to construct a Kaplan Meier
-like plot for remaining Covid free. Since studies of transmission of
SARS-CoV2 suggest a spectrum between droplet and aerosol spread, even in
asymptomatic patients and absence of aerosol generating procedures, the
type of masks protection worn by medical practitioners may mitigate risk
to different degrees. Eye protection may mitigate the risk further.
While the risk of acquiring Covid-19 in a year of practice is low, it is
not negligible. However it can be minimized. These considerations may be
helpful in deciding local risk to the practitioner according to practice
volume and in choosing the level of PPE that would result in minimizing
that risk.