Impact of COVID-19 in Minas Gerais, Brazil: Excess Deaths, Sub-Notified
Cases, Geographic and Ethnic Distribution.
Abstract
By analysing the evolution of the COVID-19 epidemic in the state of
Minas Gerais, Brazil, we showed the importance of considering the
sub-notification not only of deaths but also of infected cases. It was
shown that the largely used criteria of a historical all-deaths baseline
is not approachable in this case, where most of the deaths are
associated with causes that should decrease due to social distancing and
reduction of economic activities. A quite simple and intuitive model
based on the Gompertz function was applied to estimate excess deaths and
excess of infected cases. It fits well the data and predicts the
evolution of the epidemic adequately. Based on these analyses, an excess
of 21.638 deaths and 557.216 infected cases is predicted until the end
of 2020, with an upper bound of the case fatality rate of around 2.4 %
and a prevalence of 2.6 %. The geographical distribution of cases and
deaths and its ethnic correlation are also presented. This study points
out the necessity of governmental and private organizations working
together to improve public awareness and stimulate social distancing to
curb the viral infection, especially in critical places with high
poverty.