Ecohydrologic modeling in deciduous boreal forest: Model evaluation for
application in non-stationary climates
Abstract
Soil moisture is an important driver of growth in boreal Alaska, but
estimating soil hydraulic parameters can be challenging in this
data-sparse region. To better identify soil hydraulic parameters and
quantify energy and water balance and soil moisture dynamics, we applied
the physically-based, one-dimensional ecohydrologic Simultaneous Heat
and Water (SHAW) model, loosely coupled with the Geophysical Institute
of Permafrost Laboratory (GIPL) model, to an upland deciduous forest
stand in interior Alaska over a 13-year period. Using a Generalized
Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) parameterization, SHAW
reproduced interannual and vertical spatial variability of soil moisture
during a five-year validation period quite well, with root mean squared
error (RMSE) of volumetric water content at 0.5 m as low as 0.020. Many
parameter sets reproduced reasonable soil moisture dynamics, suggesting
considerable equifinality. Model performance generally declined in the
eight-year validation period, indicating some overfitting and
demonstrating the importance of interannual variability in model
evaluation. We compared the performance of parameter sets selected based
on traditional performance measures (RMSE) that minimize error in soil
moisture simulation, with those that were designed to minimize the
dependence of model performance on interannual climate variability. The
latter case moderately decreases traditional model performance but is
likely more suitable for climate change applications, for which it is
important that model error is independent from climate variability.
These findings illustrate (1) that the SHAW model, coupled with GIPL,
can adequately simulate soil moisture dynamics in this boreal deciduous
region, (2) the importance of interannual variability in model
parameterization, and (3) a novel objective function for parameter
selection to improve applicability in non-stationary climates.