Threatened species could be more vulnerable to climate change in
tropical countries
Abstract
Insects are the most speciose group of animals and play a central role
in ecosystem processes and functioning, yet they are often overlooked in
conservation studies. Many studies have reported a dramatic decline of
insects globally, where climate change is considered a profound threat;
however, how climate change is impacting tropical insects is largely
unknown, given most studies are from the temperate region. Here, by
considering Bangladeshi butterflies as a case study, I developed
climatic suitability maps for 242 species and compared the suitability
under current and future (2081-2100) climatic conditions. Overall, the
projected future climate could impact 241 of 242 butterfly species
(except for Spindasis elima), where 42% species could experience range
contraction. Alarmingly, the impact could be significantly more severe
among threatened species. While the direction of shift in habitat
suitability could be multidimensional, about 65% of species might move
north. While the suitability range could expand for about 58%, most
threatened species (58%) could experience range contraction. The mean
elevation of the suitable habitat could increase by 238%, and again the
situation could be more severe for the threatened butterflies (from 42m
to 108m). The niche-overlap analysis indicates that about 54% of the
realised niche could be altered. Although there might be no significant
association between the shift in habitat suitability along the
elevational gradient, migratory species could experience a more
significant shift than non-migrants. I show that climate change could
have a severe impact on Bangladeshi butterflies – depending on
Socio-Economic Pathways (ssps), the future climatic condition could be
unsuitable for 2 (ssp126) – 34% (ssp585) species. To mitigate insect
decline globally, and therefore, to meet the Post 2020 Biodiversity
Framework targets, I urge immediate detection of climate change impact
on tropical insects and developing effective conservation strategies.