Abstract
The lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of individuals is affected by
random events such as death, realized growth, or realized reproduction,
and the outcomes of these events can differ even when individuals have
identical probabilities. Another source of randomness arises when these
probabilities also change over time in variable environments. For
structured populations in stochastic environments, we extend our recent
method to determine how birth environment and birth stage determine the
random distribution of the LRS. Our results provide a null model that
quantifies effects on LRS of just the birth size or stage. Using Roe
deer Capreolus capreolus as a case study, we show that the effect
of an individual’s birth environment on LRS varies with the frequency of
environments and their temporal autocorrelation, and that lifetime
performance is affected by changes in the pattern of environmental
states expected as a result of climate change.