Simple models to predict vaginal delivery and spontaneous fetal occiput
rotation based on intrapartum ultrasound and maternal characteristics
Abstract
Objective: To develop the prediction models for identifying fetal
occiput rotation and vaginal delivery based on intrapartum sonographic
findings. Design: Prospective observational study. Setting: Hangzhou,
China. Population: Nulliparous women with a singleton cephalic
presentation at term. Methods: Serial intrapartum ultrasonography were
performed in the latent phase (T1) and every three hours after that (T2,
T3 and T4). The managing clinicians performed paired digital vaginal
examinations to assess labor progress. Main Outcome Measures: Delivery
mode and successful internal fetal head rotation to the occiput anterior
(OA) position. Results: 614 women were included, of whom 524 underwent
vaginal delivery, and 90 required cesarean section. The percentage of
women with fetuses in non-occiput anterior position at the latent phase
was 53.9% (331 cases), as 257 women underwent spontaneous rotation to
OA position before delivery, 74 were with persistent occiput posterior
or transverse position. We developed a model on the basis of the
maternal height and middle angel to predict the spontaneous fetal
occiput rotation, with the area under the receiver operating
characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.667 (95%CI 0.583-0.751). Moreover, a
prediction model based on the maternal height and angle of progression
to evaluate whether women underwent vaginal delivery was also developed,
of which the AUC was 0.738(95% CI: 0.763-0.793). Both models showed
satisfactory calibration. Conclusion: Simple models based on maternal
characteristics and intrapartum ultrasound findings might provide useful
information for predicting vaginal delivery and internal fetal occiput
rotation.