Assessing the invasive potential of different source populations of
ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) through genomically-informed
species distribution modelling
Abstract
The genetic composition of founding populations plays a key role in
determining invasion success. Despite this fact, the role of genetic
variation on the potential distribution of invaders has rarely been
investigated. Here, we integrate genomic data into ecological niche
models (ENMs) to predict the distribution of globally invasive common
ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia) to Australia. We identified three
genetic clusters of ragweed and used these clusters to construct
separate ENMs. The predicted distribution of ragweed in Australia
changed depending on the genetic composition and continent of origin of
the source population. By quantifying this change, we identified source
populations most likely to expand the ragweed distribution. As
prevention remains the most effective method of invasive species
management, our work provides a valuable way of ranking the threat posed
by different populations to better inform management decisions.