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Developmental plasticity in thermal tolerance is insufficient to compensate for rising temperatures: a meta-analysis
  • +4
  • Patrice Pottier,
  • Samantha Burke,
  • Rose Zhang,
  • Daniel Noble,
  • Lisa Schwanz,
  • Szymon Drobniak,
  • Shinichi Nakagawa
Patrice Pottier
University of New South Wales

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Samantha Burke
University of New South Wales
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Rose Zhang
Australian National University
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Daniel Noble
Australian National University
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Lisa Schwanz
University of New South Wales
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Szymon Drobniak
University of New South Wales
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Shinichi Nakagawa
University of New South Wales
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Abstract

Understanding the factors affecting thermal tolerance is crucial for predicting the impact climate change will have on ectotherms. However, the role developmental plasticity plays in allowing populations to cope with thermal extremes is poorly understood. Here, we meta-analyse how thermal tolerance is acutely and persistently impacted by early thermal environments by using data from 150 experimental studies on 138 ectothermic species. Thermal tolerance only increased by 0.13°C per 1°C change in developmental temperature and substantial variation in plasticity (~36%) was the result of shared evolutionary history and species ecology. Aquatic ectotherms were more than three times as plastic as terrestrial ectotherms. Notably, embryos expressed weaker but more heterogenous plasticity than older life stages, with numerous responses appearing as non-adaptive. While we did not find universal evidence for developmental temperatures to have persistent effects on thermal tolerance, persistent effects were vastly under-studied, and their direction and magnitude varied with ontogeny. Embryonic stages may represent a critical window of vulnerability to changing environments and we urge researchers to consider early life stages when assessing the climate vulnerability of ectotherms. Overall, our synthesis suggests that developmental changes in thermal tolerance will rarely reach levels of perfect compensation and buffer ectotherms from rising temperatures.
21 Feb 2022Submitted to Ecology Letters
21 Feb 2022Submission Checks Completed
21 Feb 2022Assigned to Editor
24 Feb 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
05 Apr 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
11 Apr 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
11 May 20221st Revision Received
12 May 2022Submission Checks Completed
12 May 2022Assigned to Editor
12 May 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
25 May 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
02 Jun 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Major
22 Jun 20222nd Revision Received
24 Jun 2022Submission Checks Completed
24 Jun 2022Assigned to Editor
27 Jun 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
28 Jun 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
02 Jul 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
06 Jul 20223rd Revision Received
07 Jul 2022Submission Checks Completed
07 Jul 2022Assigned to Editor
07 Jul 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
09 Jul 2022Editorial Decision: Accept