Mapping changes in the Environmentally Sensitive Areas to
Desertification in Mainland Portugal (2000-2020)
Abstract
Susceptibility to desertification increases as climate change leads to
warmer and drier conditions, increasing fire risk and restricting plant
growth. In Mainland Portugal, the regions with increasing aridity have
also been subject to major changes in the socio-economic tissue, with
population loss, larger farm areas and the overreach of irrigated
agriculture to marginal lands leading to an increase in land use
intensity. However, the last effort to map environmentally sensitive
areas to desertification in mainland Portugal was in 2004. This study
aims to apply an adapted Medalus method for mapping environmentally
sensitive areas to desertification at the national level in mainland
Portugal over twenty years (2000-2020). Results show both an increase in
areas susceptible to desertification (58% to 74% of the country) and
in intensity (50% to 59% of the area classified as ‘very highly’ or
‘critically’ susceptible). Desertification is a growing threat,
especially for rural areas in inner and southern Portugal. This is
mainly due to increasing aridity and land use intensity. Future studies
should focus on understanding the controlling factors at the landscape
and property scale, as well as including other variables such as soil
carbon content and land management practices.