Prediction of Urban Inundation Depths using a Machine Learning Model: An
Application to Shenzhen, China
Abstract
Urban pluvial flooding caused by extreme rainfall has been increasing
globally, thus exacerbating loss of life and damage to property.
Accurate and updated real-time forecasts are critical needs for urban
flooding response and defense. Big data has opened new avenues for
inundation depth prediction in complex urban settings. In this study, a
new method for pluvial flood classification was proposed for an
inundation depth change index (IDCI) by dividing floods into three
types: pluvial persistent floods (PPFs), pluvial normal floods (PNFs)
and pluvial flash floods (PFFs). Prediction models are identified for
the three flood types using data from a network of sensors (109 rainfall
stations and 80 flood water depth stations) in Shenzhen, China. The
results show that backpropagation neural networks (BPNNs) and long
short-term memory (LSTM) exhibit good performance in depth prediction
but are not significantly different from one another. In addition, PPFs
require a longer rainfall sequence to obtain a better forecast. The
Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of the depth prediction results at all
stations is 0.86. The prospects for generalizing this approach and its
usage are discussed.