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Comparison of Wind Speed Forecasting Models for Power Reserve Scheduling in the Congested Transmission Network
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  • Yingying Zheng,
  • Yuanrui Sang,
  • Chang Liu,
  • Jie Zhu,
  • Jinye Cao,
  • Yongning Zhao,
  • Dechang Yang
Yingying Zheng
China Agricultural University College of Information and Electrical Engineering

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yuanrui Sang
Dept. of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Texas at El Paso
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Chang Liu
China Agricultural University College of Information and Electrical Engineering
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Jie Zhu
China Agricultural University College of Information and Electrical Engineering
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Jinye Cao
China Agricultural University College of Information and Electrical Engineering
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Yongning Zhao
China Agricultural University College of Information and Electrical Engineering
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Dechang Yang
China Agricultural University College of Information and Electrical Engineering
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Abstract

Due to its stochastic nature, wind energy imposes unprecedented challenges on the power grid, and a properly scheduled reserve is essential to accommodate wind power’s intermittency and volatility. Many power reserve scheduling studies have considered the uncertainties of the renewable energy integration but few address how different wind speed forecast techniques influence the scheduling of reserves in the congested transmission networks. In this paper, three forecasting techniques: artificial neural network, autoregressive integrated moving average, and probability distribution function-based model are adopted to forecast one day of wind speed at Taylor, TX in 2012. To evaluate the impacts of the forecast techniques on power reserve scheduling, a stochastic reserve optimization model was developed to ensure the delivery of reserve in the event of transmission congestion and ramping constraints. A modified RTS-96 test system was employed and the results claim that different forecast models significantly affect the amount of scheduled up and down reserves in a stochastic reserve optimization problem. The level of operating reserve that is induced by wind is not constant during all hours of the day. Dynamic up and down reserves will be needed with a large scale of wind farm integration.
24 May 2022Submitted to The Journal of Engineering
24 May 2022Submission Checks Completed
24 May 2022Assigned to Editor
26 Jun 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
04 Jul 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
31 Jul 2022Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
10 Aug 20221st Revision Received
10 Aug 2022Submission Checks Completed
10 Aug 2022Assigned to Editor
10 Aug 2022Reviewer(s) Assigned
13 Aug 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Sep 2022Editorial Decision: Accept