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Quantifying spillover risk with an integrated bat-rabies dynamic modeling framework
  • +5
  • Eva Janoušková,
  • Jennifer Rokhsar,
  • Manuel Jara,
  • Mahbod Entezami,
  • Daniel L. Horton,
  • Ricardo Augusto Dias,
  • Gustavo Machado,
  • Joaquin Prada
Eva Janoušková
University of Surrey Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jennifer Rokhsar
University of Surrey Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
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Manuel Jara
NC State University College of Veterinary Medicine
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Mahbod Entezami
University of Surrey Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
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Daniel L. Horton
University of Surrey Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
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Ricardo Augusto Dias
Universidade de Sao Paulo Faculdade de Medicina Veterinaria e Zootecnia
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Gustavo Machado
NC State University College of Veterinary Medicine
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Joaquin Prada
University of Surrey Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
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Abstract

Vampire bat-transmitted rabies has recently become the leading cause of rabies mortality in both humans and livestock in Latin America. Evaluating risk of transmission from bats to other animal species has thus become a priority in the region. An integrated bat-rabies dynamic modeling framework quantifying spillover risk to cattle farms was developed. The model is spatially explicit, and is calibrated to the state of São Paulo, using real roost and farm locations. Roosts and farms characteristics, as well as environmental data through ecological niche model, are used to modulate rabies transmission. Interventions in roosts (such as culling or vaccination) and in farms (vaccination) where considered as control strategies implemented to reduce risk. Both interventions significantly reduce the number of outbreaks in farms and disease spread (based on distance from source), with control in roosts being a significantly better intervention. High risk areas where also identified, which can support ongoing programs, leading to more effective control interventions.