Quantifying spillover risk with an integrated bat-rabies dynamic
modeling framework
Abstract
Vampire bat-transmitted rabies has recently become the leading cause of
rabies mortality in both humans and livestock in Latin America.
Evaluating risk of transmission from bats to other animal species has
thus become a priority in the region. An integrated bat-rabies dynamic
modeling framework quantifying spillover risk to cattle farms was
developed. The model is spatially explicit, and is calibrated to the
state of São Paulo, using real roost and farm locations. Roosts and
farms characteristics, as well as environmental data through ecological
niche model, are used to modulate rabies transmission. Interventions in
roosts (such as culling or vaccination) and in farms (vaccination) where
considered as control strategies implemented to reduce risk. Both
interventions significantly reduce the number of outbreaks in farms and
disease spread (based on distance from source), with control in roosts
being a significantly better intervention. High risk areas where also
identified, which can support ongoing programs, leading to more
effective control interventions.