The Application of a Snowpack Runoff Decision Support System for
Rain-on-Snow Events
Abstract
Skillfully forecasting hydrologic outcomes of rain-on-snow (ROS) events
is critical for water management and flood mitigation not only in the
western U.S. but globally. This study applies methods for a Snowpack
Runoff Decision Support System (SR-DSS) to the unimpaired Upper Carson
watershed in the eastern Sierra Nevada of California and Nevada by
leveraging hourly Natural Resource Conservation Service SNOw TELemetry
(SNOTEL) data and compares results to observed soil moisture,
streamflow, and an existing operational snowpack-runoff model framework
used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s River
Forecast Centers. Information provided by the SR-DSS can be disseminated
to forecasters in real-time to adjust the SNOW-17 model as conditions
change in ways that the model alone might not capture. Our results
indicate that SR-DSS can enhance situational awareness by providing
detailed snowpack and weather conditions in a time-relevant manner for
forecasting and decision-making. We provide case studies to demonstrate
how the SR-DSS alone captures the onset of terrestrial water input and
how it can help assess the performance of operational models (SNOW-17
and SAC-SMA). The study suggests that the SR-DSS can be a valuable tool
for operational hydrologists by helping to refine flood forecasts by
identifying specific aspects of models that can be improved or adjusted
and enhance decision-making during ROS events by providing additional
situational awareness. Further development and testing of the SR-DSS
could lead to its adoption in operational forecasting, enhancing the
resilience of water management systems in the face of growing extreme
precipitation concerns.