A Next Generation (NextGen) Approach to Improve the Seasonal Prediction
System in East Africa
Abstract
The use of an objective seasonal forecast procedure, defined as a
traceable, reproducible, and well-documented set of steps that allows
the quantification of forecast quality, are preferred and recommended by
the World Meteorological Organization in their recent seasonal forecast
guidance. However, National Meteorological Services (NMS) in African
countries have been issuing seasonal rainfall forecasts using a
subjective consensus process, which is based on meteorologists’
experiences using Global Producing Center’s (GPCs) outputs and other
available information. A systematic general objective approach named as
NextGen (Next Generation) forecasting system is being developed for some
East African countries as part of implementing or strengthening ENACTS
(Enhancing National Climate Services;
https://iri.columbia.edu/resources/enacts/) initiative as well
implementing Columbia University’s World Project “Adapting Agriculture
to Climate Today, for Tomorrow” (ACToday;
https://iri.columbia.edu/actoday/) project. This new forecast system is
based on a calibrated multi-model ensemble (CMME) process using
state-of-the-art general circulation models (GCM) from the North
American Multi-Model Ensemble project. A
canonical-correlation-analysis-based regression is used to calibrate the
raw outputs from the GCMs; then the individually-calibrated GCMs are
combined with equal weight to make a final CMME prediction. In addition
to traditional tercile probability forecasts, NextGen also provides a
more flexible format that enables users to extract information for those
parts of the forecast distribution of the greatest interest to them in
the decision-making process. Therefore, NextGen enables NMS to generate
and deliver targeted climate information products relevant to the needs
of decision-makers at multiple levels. The NextGen forecast system has
so far been implemented in Ethiopia, Rwanda, Zambia, Malawi and
Tanzania, and planned to be implemented in more countries in the near
future. In this study, we describe the co-design, co-development, and
skill assessment of this NextGen system.