On the interaction of multiple monsoon lows that produce large-scale
heavy rainfall
Abstract
In recent years, India has been increasingly experiencing widespread
flooding induced by large-scale extreme rainfall events (LEREs). These
events are mainly associated with the monsoon low-pressure systems
(LPSs) and occur mostly in their southwestern sector. The forecast of
these high-flood-potential events, however, has remained challenging. In
this study, we compare the LPSs of the Indian summer monsoon that lead
to LEREs (LPS-Lg) and the strong LPSs that did not result in LEREs
(LPS-noLg) over central India for the period 1979-2012. We show that
having a strong LPS is not a sufficient condition to produce LEREs.
Rather, an observed consistent feature is that the LPS-Lgs are
accompanied by Secondary Cyclonic Vortices (SCVs). SCVs enhance dynamic
lifting, static instability, and moisture transport from the Arabian Sea
that precondition the atmosphere for deep convection. The simultaneous
existence of an LPS and an SCV creates a giant mid-tropospheric vortex
that helps in organizing the deep convection. SCVs also slow down the
propagation of LPSs. We show that the interaction of multiple
synoptic-scale systems can lead to LERE even if individual systems are
not strong enough.