Abstract
Equifinality is understood as one of the fundamental difficulties in the
study of open complex systems, including catchment hydrology. A review
of the hydrologic literature reveals that the term equifinality has been
widely used, but in many cases inconsistently and without coherent
recognition of the various facets of equifinality, which can lead to
ambiguity but also methodological fallacies. Therefore, in this study we
first characterise the term equifinality within the context of
hydrological modelling by reviewing the genesis of the concept of
equifinality and then presenting a theoretical framework. During past
decades, equifinality has mainly been studied as a subset of aleatory
(arising due to randomness) uncertainty and for the assessment of model
parameter uncertainty. Although the connection between parameter
uncertainty and equifinality is undeniable, we argue there is more to
equifinality than just aleatory parameter uncertainty. That is, the
importance of equifinality and epistemic uncertainty (arising due to
lack of knowledge) and their implications is overlooked in our current
practice of model evaluation. Equifinality and epistemic uncertainty in
studying, modelling, and evaluating hydrologic processes are treated as
if they can be simply discussed in (or often reduced to) probabilistic
terms (as for aleatory uncertainty). The deficiencies of this approach
to conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling are demonstrated for selected
Australian catchments by examination of parameter and internal flux
distributions and interactions within SIMHYD. On this basis, we present
a new approach that expands equifinality concept beyond model parameters
to inform epistemic uncertainty. The new approach potentially
facilitates the identification and development of more physically
plausible models and model evaluation schemes particularly within the
multiple working hypotheses framework, and is generalisable to other
fields of environmental modelling as well.