We classify all sky images from 4 seasons, transform the classification results into time-series data to include information about the evolution of images and combine these with information on the onset of geomagnetic substorms. We train a lightweight classifier on this dataset to predict the onset of substorms within a 15 minute interval after being shown information of 30 minutes of aurora. The best classifier achieves a balanced accuracy of 59% with a recall rate of 39% and false positive rate of 20%. We show that the classifier is limited by the strong imbalance in the dataset of approximately 50:1 between negative and positive events. All software and results are open source and freely available.

Auroral particle precipitation potentially plays a main role in ionospheric plasma structuring. The impact of auroral particle precipitation on plasma structuring is investigated using multi-point measurements from scintillation receivers and all sky cameras from Longyearbyen, Ny-Ålesund and Hornsund on Svalbard. This provides us with the unique possibility of studying the spatial and temporal dynamics of the aurora. Here we consider three case studies to investigate how plasma structuring is related to different auroral forms. We demonstrate that plasma structuring impacting the GNSS signals is largest at the edges of auroral forms. Here we studied two stable arcs, two dynamic auroral bands and a spiral. Specifically for arcs we find elevated phase scintillation indices at the pole-ward edge of the aurora. This is observed for auroral oxygen emissions (557.7 nm) at 150~km in the ionospheric E-region. This altitude is also used as the ionospheric piercing point for the GNSS signals as the observations remain the same regardless of different satellite elevations and azimuths. Further, there may be a time delay between the temporal evolution of aurora (f.e. commencement and fading of auroral activity) and observations of elevated phase scintillation indices. The time delay could be explained by the intense influx of particles, which increases the plasma density and causes recombination to carry on longer, which may lead to a persistence of structures - a ‘memory effect’. High values of phase scintillation indices can be observed even shortly after strong visible aurora and can then remain significant at low intensities of the aurora.

We present an analysis of in-situ thermal ion measurements from a cusp auroral sounding rocket. Using a forward modeling procedure, we find most-probable thermal ion temperature and parallel (field-aligned) bulk flow velocity along the trajectory. Spatially and temporally intermittent fine-scale structure in upflowing/downflowing features in the dayside cusp ionosphere are presented. We show that the observed ion temperatures are consistent with Joule heating expectations if spatially and temporally intermittent drivers and responses in the dynamic cusp environment are considered. Additionally, a forward modeling procedure for the ion data interpretation is improved and a sensitivity analysis is presented.

Electromagnetic energy carried by magnetohydrodynamic modes is an important mechanism in the energy transfer between the magnetosphere and the ionosphere. Through wave reflection in the ionosphere, Alfvén waves are known to carry field-aligned currents, and thus play an important role in the dynamics of the ionosphere-magnetosphere coupling. The role of Hall conductance in this interplay has been explored in magneto-hydrodynamic models of the ionosphere, but has hitherto not been observed in-situ. We use five years of observations from the Swarm mission to shed light on this interplay. We present the high-latitude climatology of both the measured Poynting flux and the measured Alfvén wave reflection coefficient. Our results indicate that high-energy deeply penetrating precipitation, which directly leads to strongly enhanced Hall conductance, is an important cause of positively interfering Alfvén wave reflection. We present such observational evidence, and with that, suggest that Hall conductance is substantially more important in the ionospheric wave reflection climatology than hitherto believed.