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A comprehensive investigation of machine learning models for estimating daily snow water equivalent over the Western U.S.
  • Shiheng Duan,
  • Paul Ullrich
Shiheng Duan
University of California Davis

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Paul Ullrich
University of California Davis
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Abstract

Substantial progress on machine learning (ML) models and graphical processing units (GPUs) has stimulated emerging research in applications of ML to earth science. As snow is a vital component of the global hydroclimate system, precise snowpack prediction is of considerable value for science and society. In this work, we have trained three different ML models (LSTM, CNN and Attention) to predict daily snow water equivalent (SWE) with both dynamic and static features in the Western Contiguous United States from Snow Telemetry (SNOTEL) observations. Dynamic features include precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature, minimum and maximum relative humidity, specific humidity, solar radiation and wind velocity. Static features are latitude, longitude, elevation, diurnal anisotropic heating (DAH) index and topographic radiative aspect (TRASP) index. This choice of features allows us to produce high-resolution maps of regional SWE for a given set of input meteorological conditions. The importance and the sensitivity of input variables will be tested by several explainable AI methods including feature permutation and integrated gradient. The ML-based dataset is further up-sampled and compared with the 4km gridded SWE dataset from the National Snow & Ice Data Center (NSIDC), which is from a physical-based model. Future SWE estimates are also produced under climate conditions projected by CMIP class models, along with associated uncertainty estimates based on our sensitivity analysis. The ML models are demonstrated to be a fast and accurate method of producing high-resolution SWE estimates with minimal computing power.