Abstract
Although scarcely described, intense summer precipitation events in
central Chile aren’t an unknown phenomenon, their recurrence is
estimated at 40 years. In the last 5 years, 2 heavy rainfall episodes
triggered massive debris flows in the San Jose de Maipo county of the
Metropolitan Region, located on the upper Maipo river basin, where
average precipitation for summer months is only 7 mm. A summary of the
current knowledge of the January 28 to 31, 2021 summer rain event is
presented. The episode has been attributed to a Zonal Atmospheric River
(ZAR), which allowed for a direct transfer of vapour and moisture on a
W-E trajectory perpendicular to the Chilean coast. The latter favoured
high altitude precipitation, with 0 degree isotherm estimated at 3.700 m
a.s.l. On a local range, the snow line was observed between 2,800-3,100
m a.s.l. The event precipitation reached unprecedented values over 60 mm
on all stations along the Maipo valley, with a local maximum of 117 mm.
3 pulses have been accounted for rainfall, with a maximum intensity of
11 mm/hour; at the peak of the pulses the Maipo river flow increased 8
times its pre-event flow of 60 m/s. In the following days after the
event, 55% of the Upper Maipo basin was covered with snow. Due to
sudden higher temperatures a consequent rapid snow melt increased the
turbidity of the Maipo river, compromising freshwater supply.
Agriculture was also affected, mainly grapes. According to the National
Geological and Mining Service, over 120 landslides were triggered during
the event, most of them being debris flows with some rock fall affecting
the main roads. 700 persons were affected, more than 100 houses resulted
with damages, 50 with severe damages and 33 destroyed, mostly at the San
Alfonso village. Cost of infrastructure’s lost was estimated over
US$4MM. Luckily, there weren’t any fatalities. This feature contrasts
with the 25 February 2017 debris flow episode in the same region, with 8
fatal victims. Although local inhabitants have coexisted with this kind
of hazards since historical times, uninterrupted urban growth on
mountain areas has contributed substantially to an increase in the level
of exposure. In this case, the accurate forecasting of the ZAR coupled
with an effective risk communication avoided fatalities, nonetheless, it
is most likely that this kind of phenomenon will occur again.