Modelling the propagation of solar disturbances to Earth for the EU
H2020 SafeSpace project
Abstract
The EU H2020 SafeSpace project aims to develop a prototype pipeline that
connects several tools in a modular fashion to address the physics of
the Sun – Interplanetary space – Earth’s magnetosphere with the
ultimate goal to forecast radiation belts dynamics. We present a part of
the pipeline called Helio1D that is dedicated to forecasting the solar
wind properties at the Lagrangian L1 point. Helio1D models solar wind
propagation using input data obtained from the MULTI-VP model, which
itself models solar wind emergence near Sun based on magnetograms and
coronal field reconstruction. In particular, we aim to forecast the
properties of the regular solar wind, as well as Corotating Interaction
Regions and their high-speed streams which are most geo-effective (for
radiation belts in particular). We take an ensemble forecasting approach
to provide optimum forecast up to 2 – 4 days of lead time. We also
couple the Helio1D pipeline with neural network models that predict
geomagnetic indices such as the Kp index for magnetospheric space
weather forecasting. In this presentation, we will present the Helio1D
pipeline status, as well as its benchmarking and calibration in order to
provide optimum forecasting in real-time. This project has received
funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation
programme under grant agreement No 870437.