Exploring Effects of Cloud Microphysics and Domain Size on Surface Solar
Radiation Using a New WRF-Solar Based Evaluation Framework
Abstract
Although it has been well recognized that clouds tremendously affect the
surface solar irradiance and its direct and diffuse partitions,
accurately forecasting solar radiation in cloudy conditions remains a
major challenge. This study focuses on two aspects of the challenge:
impacts of cloud microphysics and model domain size. First, we will
examine the sensitivity of surface solar radiation and its partitions to
cloud microphysics by using the state of art Weather Research and
Forecasting model specifically designed for simulating and forecasting
solar radiation (WRF-Solar). A number of microphysical schemes will be
tested, and comparison against the measurements of shallow cumulus
clouds and stratiform clouds selected at the DOE ARM SGP Site. Efforts
will be made to quantify the resultant uncertainty spread. Second,
identifying the physical causes of the underlying model differences is
even more challenging. To address this, we will introduce a new model
evaluation framework based on different setups of WRF-Solar (single
column, LES, and nested WRF). In particular, we will examine the effect
of the number of LES grid columns and its lower limit producing
reasonable results. Commonly used evaluation metrics will be used in our
model evaluation, including the used RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and relative
Euclidean distance. The results will provide physical insight into the
understanding of cloud-radiation interactions and forecasting of solar
radiation in cloudy conditions.