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Through the lens of a kilometer-scale climate model: 2023 Jing-Jin-Ji flood under climate change
  • +4
  • Jishi Zhang,
  • Peter Martin Caldwell,
  • Peter A Bogenschutz,
  • Paul A. Ullrich,
  • David Craig Bader,
  • Shiheng Duan,
  • Hassan Beydoun
Jishi Zhang
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Peter Martin Caldwell
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (DOE)
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Peter A Bogenschutz
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Paul A. Ullrich
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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David Craig Bader
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Shiheng Duan
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Hassan Beydoun
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
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Abstract

The megaflood in the Jing-Jin-Ji region of China at the end of July 2023, driven by two typhoons and orographic precipitation, was a major disaster. In this study we show that the extreme rainfall event is well reproduced using the 3.25 km and 800 m Regionally Refined Mesh (RRM) configuration of the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM). A projected 5.8\%/degC increase in Jing-Jin-Ji precipitation under 2.16 degC warming by 2050 for this event is related to markedly increases in condensation rate and vertical velocity. Free-running simulations further show that the response of the mesoscale circulation to warming results in more pronounced local precipitation changes and shifts in rainfall patterns. The value of SCREAM for assessing the impact of climate change on extreme events and the importance of high-resolution climate modeling are emphasized.