The motion of the Adriatic microplate is thought to be highly sensitive to the surrounding subduction zones and the convergence of Africa and Eurasia. However, our understanding of the mantle dynamics in the Mediterranean region and its effect on plate motion remains incomplete. Here, we present a large set of 3D thermomechanical models of the entire Mediterranean region over the last 35 Myr to understand what controls the motion of the Adriatic microplate. The simulations take the convergence of the African and Arabian plates with the Eurasian plate into account, along with the dynamics of the subduction systems in the western (Apennines-Calabria), central (Dinarides-Hellenides) Mediterranean and in the Alpine-Carpathian region. Our results demonstrate that the subduction systems around Adria are highly coupled, which gives rise to complex asthenospheric flow in the central Mediterranean. We find that the plate motion of the Adriatic microplate over the last 35 Myr is controlled by interplay of three main factors: 1) the convergence between the African and Eurasian plates, 2) the retreat of the Alpine subduction zone to the north of Adria, and 3) the distance between the Calabrian and Hellenic subduction zones around Adria. Furthermore, in a system characterized by active convergence between Africa and Eurasia, the slab pull exerted by nearby subduction zones can only notably influence the motion of the Adriatic microplate if these subduction zones are located within a few hundred kilometers of Adria.

The Yellowstone magmatic system is one of the largest magmatic systems on Earth, and thus an ideal location to study magmatic processes. Whereas previous seismic tomography results could only image a shallow magma reservoir, a recent study using more seismometers showed that a second and massive partially molten mush reservoir exists above the Moho \citep{huang2015yellowstone}. To understand the measurable surface response of this system to visco-elasto-plastic deformation, it is thus important to take the whole system from the mantle plume up to the shallow magma reservoirs into account. Here, we employ lithospheric-scale 3D visco-elasto-plastic geodynamic models to test the influence of parameters such as the connectivity of the reservoirs and rheology of the lithosphere on the dynamics of the system. A gravity inversion is used to constrain the effective density of the magma reservoirs, and an adjoint modelling approach reveals the key model parameters affecting the surface velocity. Model results show that a combination of connected reservoirs with plastic rheology can explain the recorded slow vertical surface uplift rates of around 1.2 cm/yr, as representing a long term background signal. A geodynamic inversion to fit the model to observed GPS surface velocities reveals that the magnitude of surface uplift varies strongly with the viscosity difference between the reservoirs and the crust. Even though stress directions have not been used as inversion parameters, modelled stress orientations are consistent with observations. However, phases of larger uplift velocities can also result from magma reservoir inflation which is a short term effect. We consider two approaches: 1) overpressure in the magma reservoir in the asthenosphere and 2) inflation of the uppermost reservoir prescribed by an internal kinematic boundary condition. We demonstrate that the asthenosphere inflation has a smaller effect on the surface velocities in comparison with the uppermost reservoir inflation. We show that the pure buoyant uplift of magma bodies in combination with magma reservoir inflation can explain (varying) observed uplift rates at the example of the Yellowstone volcanic system.

Geodynamic codes have become fast and efficient enough to facilitate sensitivity analysis of rheological parameters. With sufficient data, they can even be inverted for. Yet, the geodynamic inverse problem is often regularized by assuming a constant geometry of the geological setting (e.g. shape, location and size of salt diapirs or magma bodies) or approximating irregular bodies with simple shapes like boxes, spheres or ellipsoids to reduce the parameter space. Here, we present a simple and intuitive method to parameterize complex 3D bodies and incorporate them into geodynamic inverse problems. The approach can automatically create an entire ensemble of initial geometries, enabling us to account for uncertainties in imaging data. Furthermore, it allows us to investigate the sensitivity of the model results to geometrical properties and facilitates inverting for them. We demonstrate the method with two examples. A salt diapir in an extending regime and free subduction of an oceanic plate under a continent. In both cases, small differences in the model’s initial geometry lead to vastly different results. Be it the formation of faults or the velocity of plates. Using the salt diapir example, we demonstrate that, given an additional geophysical observation, we are able to invert for uncertain geometric properties. This highlights that geodynamic studies should investigate the sensitivity of their models to the initial geometry and include it in their inversion framework. We make our method available as part of the open-source software geomIO.

Crustal-stored magma reservoirs contain exsolved volatiles which accumulate in the reservoir roof, exerting a buoyancy force on the crust. This produces surface uplift and sudden loss of volatiles through eruption results in syn-eruptive subsidence. Here, we present three-dimensional, visco-elasto-plastic, numerical modeling results which quantify the ground deformation arising from the growth and release of a volatile reservoir. Deformation is independent of crustal thermal distribution and volatile reservoir shape, but is a function of volatile volume, density and depth and crustal rigidity. We present a scaling law for the volatiles’ contribution to syn-eruptive subsidence and show this contributes ~20% of the observed subsidence associated with the 2015 Calbuco eruption. Our results highlight the key role that volatile-driven buoyancy can have in volcano deformation, show a new link between syn-eruptive degassing and deflation, and highlight that shallow gas accumulation and release may have a major impact on ground deformation of volcanoes.

The dynamics of the Alps and surrounding regions is still not completely understood, partly because of a non-unique interpretation of its upper-mantle architecture. In this respect, it is unclear if interpreted slabs are consistent with the observed surface deformation and topography. We derive three-end member scenarios of lithospheric thickness and slab geometries by clustering available shear-wave tomography models into a statistical ensemble. We use these scenarios as input for geodynamic simulations and compare modelled topography, surface velocities and mantle flow to observations. We found that a slab detached beneath the Alps, but attached beneath the Northern Apennines captures first-order patterns in topography and vertical surface velocities and can provide a causative explanation for the observed seismicity.