A document by Eleonora Dallan. Click on the document to view its contents.

Estimating the probability of rare or yet unobserved rainfall extremes is essential for hazard quantification, especially in the context of an intensifying water cycle and of short observational records, common even in countries with long hydro-meteorological monitoring tradition. Data limitations can be mitigated by using regionalization techniques, which augment observational information, and by employing effective statistical models , such as the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD), which maximizes the use of available observations. In this work, we develop the MEVD Regionalized framework (MEVD-R) to reduce uncertainty in estimating the probability of rare events that are not present in the training sample. Extensive testing using a global dataset of 40,000 rain gauges across Europe, North America, and Australia demonstrates that MEVD-R yields negligible systematic error and greatly reduces uncertainty compared to traditional approaches. MEVD-R can even provide estimates when available data are too sparse for conventional methodologies to offer reliable results.

A document by Eleonora Dallan. Click on the document to view its contents.

Droughts have pervasive societal impacts and remain difficult to characterize observationally, due to the limited number of droughts sampled in instrumental records. One approach to improving the statistical basis of drought occurrence probability estimation is to extend the observational record using proxy climatic archives, such as those based on tree-ring information. Additionally, since droughts are rare and characterized by multiannual durations and inter-arrival times, it is important to devise and apply statistical techniques that make full use of all of the available information so as to improve our ability to quantify the rarest droughts. We extract data from a publicly available tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) dataset, the Old World Drought Atlas, for two sites in Italy where long rainfall and temperature observational time series are leveraged for a meaningful comparison. Drought events are defined in terms of drought deficit volumes below a threshold PDSI value, and are studied through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD) to quantify the occurrence probability of extreme drought events. The estimation uncertainty associated with a variety of possible assumptions in MEVD analysis is studied, in specific comparison with the performance obtained using the traditional Generalized Extreme Value distribution, through a cross-validation methodology. Results suggest that MEVD-based formulations are more robust and flexible with respect to traditional ones. The combination of paleoclimatic data and methodologies capable of using most of the existing information provide more reliable estimates of drought recurrence times, which may be used to design more effective drought risk management plans.

Tidal salt marshes are widespread along the World’s coasts, and are ecologically and economically important as they provide several valuable ecosystem services. In particular, their significant primary production, coupled with sustained vertical accretion rates, enables marshes to sequester and store large amounts of organic carbon and makes them one of the most carbon-rich ecosystems on Earth. Organic carbon accumulation results from the balance between inputs, i.e. organic matter produced by local plants or imported, and outputs through decomposition and erosion. Additionally, organic matter deposition actively contributes to marsh vertical accretion, thus critically affecting the resilience of marsh ecosystems to rising relative sea levels. A better understanding of organic-matter dynamics in salt marshes is key to address salt-marsh conservation issues and to elucidate marsh importance within the global carbon cycle. Toward this goal, we empirically derived rates of organic matter decomposition by burying 712 commercially available tea bags at different marshes in the microtidal Venice Lagoon (Italy), and by analyzing them following the Tea Bag Index protocol. We find values of the decomposition rate (k) and stabilization factor (S) equal to 0.012±0.003 day-1 and 0.15±0.063, respectively. Water temperature critically affects organic matter decomposition, enhancing decomposition rates by 8% per °C on average. We argue that, at least in the short term, the amount of undecomposed organic matter that actively contributes to carbon sequestration and marsh vertical accretion strongly depends on the initial organic matter quality, which is a function of marsh and vegetation characteristics.

Quantifying the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events is key in translating climate observations to planning and engineering design. Past efforts have mostly focused on the estimation of daily extremes using gauge observations. Recent development of high-resolution global precipitation products, now allow estimation of global extremes. This research aims to quantitatively characterize the spatiotemporal behavior of precipitation extremes, by calculating extreme precipitation return levels for multiple durations on the global domain using the Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) dataset. Both classical and novel extreme value distributions are used to provide an insight into the spatial patterns of precipitation extremes. Our results show that the traditional Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) methods, which only use the largest events to estimate precipitation extremes, are not spatially coherent. The recently developed Metastatistical Extreme Value (MEV) distribution, that includes all precipitation events, leads to smoother spatial patterns of local extremes. While the GEV and POT methods predict a consistent shift from heavy to thin tails with increasing duration, the heaviness of the tail obtained with MEV was relatively unaffected by the precipitation duration. The generated extreme precipitation return levels and corresponding parameters are provided as the Global Precipitation EXtremes (GPEX) dataset. These data can be useful for studying the underlying physical processes causing the spatiotemporal variations of the heaviness of extreme precipitation distributions.

Coastal wetlands are intertidal ecosystems based on a delicate balance between hydrodynamic, morphological, and biological processes. Increasing rates of relative sea-level rise, sediment starvation and anthropogenic pressure challenge the existence of wetlands and the ecosystem services they support, extending to water quality enhancement, carbon sequestration, and shoreline protection. Therefore, to preserve coastal wetlands and their ecosystem services, it is of utmost importance to understand sedimentation processes that drive salt-marsh vertical accretion and offset the effects of relative sea-level rise. Tidal flooding propagating via the channel and creek system is considered to be the main mechanism controlling marsh sediment supply. However, storm-induced resuspension associated with enhanced water level can importantly affect the marsh sediment budget, sustaining sedimentation on the marsh surface and signing its topography, which, in turn, affects transport processes. To better understand how tides and storm surges affect spatial and temporal sedimentation patterns in salt marshes, we investigated short-term sedimentation processes through field observation in the salt marshes of the Venice Lagoon, Italy. Sediment accumulation measurements carried out continuously from October 2018 to July 2021 in four different marshes reveal that storm-driven sediment supply accounts on average for 70% of the total yearly sedimentation, despite the brief duration of storm events. On marshes bordering channels, sediment mostly accumulates close to the marsh margin and sedimentation rapidly decreases with the distance from the marsh edge, contributing to form a levee-shaped profile. Conversely, on marshes facing tidal flats, where the action of wind waves is stronger, maximum sedimentation shows an inland displacement, creating a gently sloped, ramped transition at the marsh margin. We conclude that storm surges importantly support marsh sediment accumulation and change the spatial depositional patterns, which largely define the marsh topographic profile.

Conventional engineering measures, such as surge barriers and mobile floodgates, are being adopted in many coastal cities worldwide, threatened by the increasing flooding hazard due to rising sea levels. Famous examples include London, the Netherlands, New Orleans, St. Petersburg and Venice. However, the question of how flood regulation affects the morphodynamic evolution of shallow tidal embayments still lingers. Storm-surge barriers may importantly modify the propagation of tides, surges and wind waves, changing sediment transport and, thus, the morphological evolution of regulated tidal environments, in particular in sediment-starved systems. Combining field data and numerical modelling, we investigate the effect of the Mo.S.E. storm-surge barriers, designed to protect Venice from flooding, on the morphodynamic evolution of the Venice lagoon. Artificial reduction of water levels within the lagoon affects the interaction between tide propagation and wind waves, increasing sediment resuspension on tidal flats. Resuspended sediment hardly accumulates on salt marshes, contributing to their vertical accretion and offsetting the negative effect of relative sea-level rise, owing to the reduction of marsh flooding determined by reduced water levels. Although barrier closures temporarily reduce the sediment export toward the open sea, this does not point to preserve the characteristic lagoonal morphology, hindering salt-marsh accumulation and promoting tidal-flat deepening and channel infilling. We conclude that the operations of flood barriers can promote a significant loss of geomorphological diversity, which will critically impact the ecosystem services provided by the shallow tidal environments they are meant to protect, thus increasing the costs related to their conservation and restoration.

A growing number of coastal eco-geomorphologic modeling studies have been conducted to understand coastal marsh evolution under sea level rise (SLR). Although these models quantify marsh topographic change as a function of sedimentation and erosion, their representations of vegetation dynamics that control organic sedimentation differ. How vegetation dynamic schemes and parameter values contribute to simulation outcomes is still not quantified. Additionally, the sensitivity of modeling outcomes on parameter selection in the available formulations has not been rigorously tested to date, especially under the influence of an accelerating SLR. This knowledge gap severely limits modeling accuracy and the estimation of the vulnerability of coastal marshes under SLR. In this paper, we used coastal eco-geomorphologic models with different vegetation dynamic schemes to investigate the eco-geomorphologic feedbacks of coastal marshes and parametric sensitivity under SLR scenarios. We found that marsh accretion rate near the seaward boundary can keep pace with moderate and high rates of SLR, while interior marsh regions are vulnerable to a high rate of SLR. The simulations with different vegetation schemes exhibit diversity in elevation and biomass profiles and parametric sensitivity. We also found that the model parametric sensitivity varies with rates of future SLR. Vegetation-related parameters and sediment diffusivity, which are not well measured or discussed in previous studies, are identified as some of the most critical parameters. Our findings provide insights to appropriately choose modeling presentations of key processes and feedbacks for different coastal marsh landscapes under SLR, which has practical implications for coastal ecosystem management and protection.